Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of December?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Dec 31 · $183 today · $25.8K traded · $1.4K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

20%Google
  • Google20%▲ 1
  • Meta18%▲ 1
  • Anthropic14%
  • Moonshot13%
  • Alibaba10%
  • Bytedance8%▲ 4
  • DeepSeek6%▲ 2
  • Tencent5%▲ 1
  • OpenAI4%
  • Z.ai4%
  • Thinky3%▲ 3
  • SpaceXAI3%▲ 2
9 more
  • Xiaomi1%
  • Nvidia<1%
  • Amazon<1%
  • StepFun<1%
  • Microsoft<1%
  • Baidu<1%
  • MiniMax<1%
  • Meituan<1%
  • Mistral<1%

How the odds have moved

Google: 21% on Oct 20, 20% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 24, 11 PM ETGoogle: 12% → 17%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

  2. Oct 21, 7 PM ETGoogle: 22% → 12%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Google 20% ▲ 1 20¢ 21¢ $4.76 $7.5K
Meta 18% ▲ 1 18¢ 22¢ $4.55 $2.7K
Anthropic 14% 14¢ 17¢ $5.88 $4.7K
Moonshot 13% 13¢ 16¢ $6.13 $640
Alibaba 10% 10¢ 15¢ $6.67 $2.6K
Bytedance 8% ▲ 4 0¢ 19¢ $5.21 $873
DeepSeek 6% ▲ 2 1¢ 13¢ $7.75 $924
Tencent 5% ▲ 1 0¢ 12¢ $8.47 $541
OpenAI 4% 1¢ 8¢ $12.05 $656
Z.ai 4% 1¢ 8¢ $12.50 $1.1K
Thinky 3% ▲ 3 0¢ 7¢ $14.29 $510
SpaceXAI 3% ▲ 2 1¢ 6¢ $16.67 $501
Xiaomi 1% 0¢ 1¢ $83.33 $630
Nvidia <1% 0¢ 1¢ $188
Amazon <1% 0¢ 1¢ $172
StepFun <1% 0¢ 1¢ $205
Microsoft <1% 0¢ 1¢ $232
Baidu <1% 0¢ 0¢ $360
MiniMax <1% 0¢ 0¢ $269
Meituan <1% 0¢ 0¢ $254
Mistral <1% 0¢ 0¢ $399

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab

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Tech › AI

Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?

48%Meta
  • Meta48%▲ 2
  • Z.ai12%▼ 5
  • Xiaomi9%▼ 1
17 more
  • Moonshot9%▲ 7
  • Google4%▲ 3
  • Microsoft4%▼ 1
  • Anthropic3%▲ 1
  • OpenAI3%
  • Alibaba2%
  • Tencent2%
  • Bytedance1%
  • SpaceXAI<1%
  • Baidu<1%
  • Amazon<1%
  • Mistral<1%
  • Meituan<1%
  • Nvidia<1%
  • DeepSeek<1%
  • MiniMax<1%
  • StepFun<1%
Tech › AI

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

88%Google
  • Google88%▲ 2
  • Anthropic9%▼ 1
  • OpenAI1%
18 more
  • Meta<1%
  • Moonshot<1%
  • Alibaba<1%
  • Baidu<1%
  • Z.ai<1%
  • Xiaomi<1%
  • SpaceXAI<1%
  • DeepSeek<1%
  • Amazon<1%
  • ByteDance<1%
  • Nvidia<1%
  • Thinky<1%
  • MiniMax<1%
  • Mistral<1%
  • Meituan<1%
  • Tencent<1%
  • StepFun<1%
  • Microsoft<1%
PolymarketCloses Sat 12:00 PM ET · $66.9K today
Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

67%No release by October 31
  • No release by October 3167%▼ 5
  • October 2718%▲ 2
  • October 295%▲ 2
11 more
  • October 284%▼ 1
  • October 302%▲ 1
  • October 201%▼ 12
  • October 311%▲ 1
  • October 19<1%▼ 2
  • October 21<1%▼ 5
  • October 22<1%▼ 14
  • October 23<1%▼ 4
  • October 24<1%
  • October 25<1%▼ 1
  • October 26<1%▼ 4
PolymarketCloses Sat 11:59 PM ET · $45.3K today

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions