GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?
Nov 20, 2026even chance by
- October 3118%▼ 2
- November 1544%▲ 7
- November 3068%▲ 17
2 more
- December 1581%▲ 7
- December 3181%▼ 5
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Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of November?
The odds
71%Anthropic
- Anthropic71%▼ 2
- Tencent10%▲ 1
- MiniMax8%▲ 10
- OpenAI5%
- Google4%
- Meituan4%
- ByteDance2%
- Z.ai1%
- DeepSeek1%▲ 1
- Meta1%
- Nvidia1%
- Alibaba<1%
9 more
- Moonshot<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- Thinky<1%
- Mistral<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Amazon<1%
- Microsoft<1%
How the odds have moved
Anthropic: 73% on Oct 20, 71% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 71% | ▼ 2 | 71¢ | 75¢ | $1.33 | $4.5K |
| Tencent | 10% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | $284 |
| MiniMax | 8% | ▲ 10 | 1¢ | 20¢ | $5.03 | $307 |
| OpenAI | 5% | 1¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | $276 | |
| 4% | 1¢ | 10¢ | $10.20 | $2.1K | ||
| Meituan | 4% | 0¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | $496 | |
| ByteDance | 2% | 0¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | $247 | |
| Z.ai | 1% | 0¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | $242 | |
| DeepSeek | 1% | ▲ 1 | 0¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | $326 |
| Meta | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | $282 | |
| Nvidia | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | $237 | |
| Alibaba | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $226 | |
| Moonshot | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $236 | |
| Baidu | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $209 | |
| Xiaomi | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $242 | |
| SpaceXAI | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $236 | |
| Thinky | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $236 | |
| Mistral | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $236 | |
| StepFun | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $236 | |
| Amazon | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $236 | ||
| Microsoft | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $280 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: AI model, artificial intelligence, LiveBench
Search ›-
Anthropic sued for allegedly using 274 Elvis Presley songs to train AI modelsAuthentic Brands Group says AI company infringed on rights of songs by the King such as Can’t Help Falling in Love Authentic Brands Group, the licensing organization that has ownership of both Presley’s music and likeness, is accusing… -
Forced to pick, Grok’s AI model chooses Republicans. OpenAI’s picks Democrats.Buy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. Most AI chatbots won’t outright tell you who to vote for, but some of the models behind them will. A new study found that when forced to choose in this year’s upcoming… -
Did Texas use artificial intelligence to call fourth-down play against Florida? Longhorns AD clarifies reportArch Manning 2026 season at Texas has far underperformed what many expected out of a potential top-10 draft pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. Ryan Leaf speaks with Craig Carton about Manning's season so far. On the same day that the University… -
OpenAI now trains its frontier AI models with no internet accessAI agents can still communicate without a network connection, OpenAI found. OpenAI paused training its frontier AI models in September, after disclosing several incidents in which its AI agents broke out of their testing environments to… -
Artificial IntelligenceFor Prelims: Artificial Intelligence (AI), Weak AI, Strong AI, Differences Between AI, ML and DL, Types of AI. For Mains: Indigenization of Technology & Developing New Technology, Awareness in Different Fields, Advantages of AI… -
HKEX Launches Artificial Intelligence and Semiconductor IndicesLaunch of HKEX Artificial Intelligence Index and HKEX Semiconductor Index to provide benchmarks for two key technology themes HKEX continues to expand proprietary index suite and broaden coverage of emerging technology trends License… -
Jack Dorsey’s Block made an AI model that talks to you like an awkward new friendYou have got to listen to these conversations with Block’s new Dessa AI model. Jack Dorsey’s Block announced an AI model called Dessa that’s trained “from scratch on nothing but human conversation,” and to show off the model, Block shared… -
NSF State and Regional Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Hubs WebinarThe NSF State and Regional Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Hubs program aims to expand access to the computing resources needed for AI-enabled scientific discovery and strengthen research, education, and workforce development at… -
Artificial Intelligence Advances Precision Cardiovascular CareArtificial intelligence in cardiovascular medicine advances diagnostics, risk prediction, and clinical decision support. This site is intended for healthcare professionals Artificial Intelligence Advances Precision Cardiovascular Care… -
Artificial Intelligence: A Blessing or a Curse?“Generative AI is one of the most exciting and powerful technologies of our time, but it also presents new challenges and risks that we need to address thoughtfully and proactively.” Is every great invention a blessing or a curse? What if… -
Letter: Delay the deployment of artificial intelligenceWhile the promise of AI dominates headlines, the mounting societal and environmental risks demand a profound and immediate slowdown. Letter: Delay the deployment of artificial intelligence While the promise of AI dominates headlines, the… -
When art, music, artificial intelligence meet at Istanbul's AKMIstanbul’s Atatürk Cultural Centre (AKM) recently hosted a special evening that brought together art, music, architecture and technology. The event marked a significant anniversary for Limak, but its atmosphere extended beyond a corporate…
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All ai ›Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
57%Anthropic
- Anthropic57%▲ 5
- Google32%▼ 3
- OpenAI6%
12 more
- xAI1%
- Meta1%
- Alibaba1%
- Moonshot<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Microsoft<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Amazon<1%
- Baidu<1%
OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
48%December 31, 2027
- December 31, 202613%▼ 1
- December 31, 202748%▼ 8
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
89%Google
- Google89%▲ 3
- Anthropic9%▼ 1
- OpenAI1%
18 more
- Meta<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
$2.27Thigh with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.27T.
- Reaches $1.5T96%
- Reaches $1.75T84%
- Falls to $800B4%
- Falls to $700B4%
Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
73%No release by October 31
- No release by October 3173%
- October 2718%▲ 4
- October 294%
11 more
- October 284%
- October 302%
- October 201%▼ 12
- October 31<1%
- October 19<1%▼ 2
- October 21<1%▼ 5
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 23<1%▼ 4
- October 24<1%
- October 25<1%▼ 1
- October 26<1%▼ 4
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions