Will Claude go down on __ days in October?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Sat 11:59 PM ET · $3.5K today · $47K traded · $4.2K at stake · prices read 16 min ago

The odds

6.26median

316

Median 6.26Middle half 5.61 – 6.90

How the odds have moved

Median: 4.94 on Oct 20, 6.26 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
<5	1%		1¢	2¢	$55.56	$14.8K
5-7	78%	▲ 1	76¢	79¢	$1.27	$16.5K
8-10	21%		20¢	22¢	$4.55	$9.3K
11-13	<1%		0¢	1¢		$5.2K
14+	<1%			0¢		$1.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Anthropic, Claude

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Anthropic’s Claude AI model accessed Georgia voter data in USthe Guardian · 3 h agoAnthropic sued for allegedly using 274 Elvis songs to train AI models Anthropic’s Claude model accessed voter data in the US state of Georgia, the AI company has confirmed, in the latest example of unauthorised behaviour by the technology…
Claude AI accessed publicly available Georgia voter data, Anthropic confirmsFox Business · 15 h agoAnthropic's Claude AI model accessed publicly available voter data through Georgia's data hub, state officials and the company confirmed to FOX Business on Sunday. The Georgia Secretary of State's office stressed that the bot did not…
Anthropic bans scientists after detecting covert bioweapon research on ClaudeUNILAD Tech · 3 h agoThey attempted to create a new version of a dangerous virus Anthropic has just revealed a number of case studies where they detected concerning uses of Claude, and one involved a group of international scientists that were seemingly using…
Claude Duet is here: Anthropic's 24/7 AI agent, testedYahoo Finance · 4 h agoAnthropic just launched Claude Duet, a 24/7 personal agent that works on its own computer in the cloud and comes to you with what needs your attention. Host Ejaaz Ahamadeen tests it for 48 hours, compares it to Meta Muse, OpenAI Dots and…
Anthropic’s Claude AI Bypassed a Paywall to Access Georgia Vote Count DataCoinCentral · 4 h ago🇺🇸 Anthropic’s AI just went shopping for Georgia election data… and decided the checkout was optional. — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) October 26, 2026 The data was publicly available aggregate voter counts. Anthropic released its statement…
Artizent Achieves Select Partner Tier in Anthropic’s Claude Partner Network Services TrackAiThority · 4 h agoArtizent, a global enterprise engineering company, announced that it has achieved the Select partner tier in the Claude Partner Network Services Track. CloudOffix to Lead IEDC Learning Lab on AI-Ready Infrastructure for Economic…
New report confirms Anthropic’s Claude bypassed a paywall to access Georgia vote countsDigital Trends · 90 min agoAI giants have a growing autonomy problem on their hands. A new Axios report has revealed that Anthropic’s Claude recently accessed publicly available Georgia vote count without human authorization, sparking fresh concerns about AI…
Anthropic's Claude AI bypasses paywall to access Georgia vote count data without promptMathrubhumi English · 7 h agoGet Latest News Updates From Mathrubhumi English. Know the breaking news in India, Kerala and around the world. Mathrubhumi covers all breaking news from India, Kerala News, Political News Kerala, India and World, Entertainment News…
Anthropic's Claude AI Bypassed Paywall To Access US Voter Data Without Permission: What Happened?News18 · 3 h agoAnthropic’s artificial intelligence model Claude accessed election-related data from the US state of Georgia without human authorisation after bypassing a payment restriction, raising fresh questions about how AI systems interact with…
Anthropic Says Claude Bypassed Paywall To Pull Georgia Vote-Count Data Without AuthorisationFree Press Journal · 8 h agoHow Claude got through An Anthropic spokesperson told Axios that the model requested a token, without being asked to, in order to query a dashboard holding information normally sold for a fee. The spokesperson added that mitigations have…
Anthropic's Claude Accessed Georgia Voter Data Without Human Approval: ReportNDTV · 14 h agoAnthropic's Claude AI model accessed publicly available voter information from the US state of Georgia without human authorisation during a training run, Axios reported on Sunday. An Anthropic spokesperson told Axios that the incident did…
AI giant Anthropic files for blockbuster IPO@coindesk · 8 h agoAnthropic filed for an IPO on Monday morning, aiming to take the company public in November. The prospectus showed first-half 2026 revenue of $16.3 billion and a net loss of $80.7 billion. Share count and price range remain undisclosed…

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Which company has the best AI model end of October?

86%Google

Google86%▼ 4
Anthropic10%▲ 2
OpenAI1%

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Meta<1%
Moonshot<1%
Alibaba<1%
Baidu<1%
Z.ai<1%
Xiaomi<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Amazon<1%
ByteDance<1%
Nvidia<1%
Thinky<1%
MiniMax<1%
Mistral<1%
Meituan<1%
Tencent<1%
StepFun<1%
Microsoft<1%

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Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

52%Anthropic

Anthropic52%▲ 3
Google36%▼ 2
OpenAI6%

12 more

Meta2%
xAI1%▼ 1
Alibaba1%
Moonshot1%
Z.ai<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Mistral<1%
Microsoft<1%
ByteDance<1%
Meituan<1%
Amazon<1%
Baidu<1%

Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

58%No release by October 31

No release by October 3158%▼ 10
October 2719%▲ 1
October 297%▲ 3

11 more

October 286%▲ 3
October 265%▲ 1
October 302%▲ 1
October 201%▼ 12
October 31<1%▼ 1
October 19<1%▼ 2
October 21<1%▼ 5
October 22<1%▼ 14
October 23<1%▼ 4
October 24<1%
October 25<1%▼ 1

Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

Nov 10, 2026even chance by

October 21<1%▼ 12
October 22<1%▼ 14
October 24<1%▼ 1

2 more

October 3142%▲ 11
December 3193%▼ 1

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Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?

1,410median

1,3801,480

Median 1,410Middle half 1,405 – 1,415

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Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

34%December 31, 2028

December 31, 20264%
June 30, 202711%
December 31, 202714%

1 more

December 31, 202834%▲ 10

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesOct 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$47K

Today$3.5K

This week$27.1K

At stake$4.2K

In the news225 headlines today, 1,717 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the number of days in October 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun. This market will resolve on

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions