Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Polymarket Economy › The Fed Closes Jan 27, 2027 · $4K today · $56.5K traded · $14.6K at stake · prices read 28 min ago

The odds

52%Pause-Hike-Pause

Pause-Hike-Pause52%▼ 8
Pause-Hike-Hike16%▲ 8
Pause-Pause-Pause9%▲ 1
Hike-Hike-Pause8%▲ 2
Hike-Hike-Hike7%▲ 2
Pause-Pause-Hike3%▼ 1
Hike-Pause-Pause2%▼ 1
Other2%
Hike-Pause-Hike2%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Pause-Hike-Pause	52%	▼ 8	52¢	53¢	$1.89	$35.5K
Pause-Hike-Hike	16%	▲ 8	15¢	17¢	$5.88	$14.3K
Pause-Pause-Pause	9%	▲ 1	9¢	10¢	$10.00	$962
Hike-Hike-Pause	8%	▲ 2	7¢	9¢	$11.11	$823
Hike-Hike-Hike	7%	▲ 2	3¢	12¢	$8.40	$981
Pause-Pause-Hike	3%	▼ 1	1¢	5¢	$20.00	$633
Hike-Pause-Pause	2%	▼ 1	0¢	4¢	$22.73	$945
Other	2%		0¢	3¢	$30.30	$1.6K
Hike-Pause-Hike	2%	▼ 1	0¢	3¢	$33.33	$814

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All the fed ›

Economy › The Fed

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

67%Hike–Pause–Hike

Hike–Pause–Hike67%▼ 1
Hike–Pause–Pause18%▼ 1
Hike–Hike–Hike11%▲ 3

2 more

Hike–Hike–Pause2%▼ 1
Other1%

Economy › The Fed

Fed Decision in October?

85%No change

No change85%▼ 3
25 bps increase14%▲ 2
25 bps decrease<1%

2 more

50+ bps increase<1%
50+ bps decrease<1%

Economy › The Fed

Fed Decision in December?

77%25 bps increase

25 bps increase77%▲ 2
No change19%▼ 2
50+ bps increase3%

2 more

25 bps decrease1%
50+ bps decrease<1%

Economy › The Fed

Fed Decision in January?

64%No change

No change64%▲ 2
25 bps increase34%
25 bps decrease1%

2 more

50+ bps increase1%
50+ bps decrease1%

Economy › The Fed

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

97%0 (0 bps)

0 (0 bps)97%
1 (25 bps)1%
2 (50 bps)<1%

10 more

4 (100 bps)<1%
3 (75 bps)<1%
5 (125 bps)<1%
6 (150 bps)<1%
7 (175 bps)<1%
8 (200 bps)<1%
9 (225 bps)<1%
10 (250 bps)<1%
11 (275 bps)<1%
12+ (300+ bps)<1%

Economy › The Fed

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

68%2 (50 bps)

2 (50 bps)68%▲ 1
1 (25 bps)21%▼ 2
3 (75 bps)10%

2 more

4 (100 bps)1%
5+ (125+ bps)<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesJan 27, 2027 6:59 PM ET

Traded$56.5K

Today$4K

This week$56.5K

At stake$14.6K

In the news81 headlines today, 1,929 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meetin

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.