Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
56%Anthropic
- Anthropic56%▲ 3
- Google34%▼ 3
- OpenAI6%
12 more
- Meta2%
- xAI1%
- Alibaba1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Microsoft<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Amazon<1%
- Baidu<1%
Install
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in October 2026?
The odds
4.99median
0.505.50
Median 4.99Middle half 4.74 – 5.25
How the odds have moved
Median: 4.83 on Oct 20, 4.99 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <1% | 0¢ | $668 | |||
| 1 | <1% | 0¢ | $3.8K | |||
| 2 | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $5.8K | ||
| 3 | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $8.8K | ||
| 4 | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $55.56 | $7.6K | |
| 5+ | 98% | 98¢ | 100¢ | $13.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: OpenAI, ChatGPT, ChatGPT Outage Days
Search ›-
OpenAI releases ChatGPT work activity data across 100 countriesThe country-level dataset shows work tasks, older users and image generation reshaping how people use the chatbot OpenAI official logo (public domain, Wikimedia Commons) — CryptoBriefing brand treatment OpenAI has published a… -
OpenAI Launches GPT-6.1 Terra, Its Half-Good AI Model at Half the PriceOpenAI released GPT-6.1 Terra on Monday, an upgrade to the middle model in its lineup that it says costs developers 50% less than GPT-5.6 Terra and handles computer tasks faster and more accurately. Terra is the everyday model, built for… -
OpenAI announces three big science discoveries and a new way to work with academicsLess than a month after its mass release of hundreds of manuscripts that it said contained solutions to long-standing mathematics questions, OpenAI is back with three more "major" discoveries in math, computer science, and physics. What's… -
How OpenAI turned its coding tools into dots, an always-on personal assistantThe always-on AI personal assistant, which keeps working in the background even when you aren’t asking it to, is this year’s answer to the question of how people will actually use deep learning models. The startup Instinct became an… -
Texas sues OpenAI over ChatGPT safety claims and alleged harm to minorsTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton has filed a lawsuit against artificial intelligence company OpenAI and its chief executive, Sam Altman, alleging the maker of ChatGPT deceived consumers about the safety of its flagship chatbot and failed… -
GPT-6.1 Terra is very good at computer use, OpenAI says.The new AI model, available today for Plus, Pro, Enterprise, and Edu users in ChatGPT Work and Codex, is “a fast, efficient model that combines detailed visual reasoning and precise computer use alongside clearer, more natural writing,”… - OpenAI Rolls Out GPT-6.1 Terra Across ChatGPT Work, Codex and the APIAccording to OpenAI's official GPT-6.1 Terra announcement, the model is intended for work that combines visual information with actions and written output. OpenAI cites examples including interpreting technical drawings, drafting proposals…
- OpenAI upgrades ChatGPT and Codex with new GPT-6.1 Terra modelEarth is so back. Last month when OpenAI released GPT-6 models of Sol and Luna, its medium model Terra was excluded from the update. Now OpenAI has upgraded Terra from GPT-5.6 to GPT-6.1, touting speed and computer use at a lower price…
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Workers at OpenAI, Anthropic made to ditch company logos as it makes them targets for spies, seductionSilicon Valley’s top AI workers are being told to hide any company logos in public as working for the hottest companies marks them as targets for spies and angry protesters. OpenAI tells staff not to wear anything bearing its logo outside… -
Texas is suing OpenAI over ChatGPT safety regulationsThe state of Texas has filed a lawsuit against OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, claiming that the company misled users about the safety of its popular AI chatbot. State leadership says that OpenAI is ... New to Shacknews? Signup for a Free… -
Texas sues OpenAI and Sam Altman over ChatGPT’s safety for childrenAttorney General Ken Paxton wants ChatGPT kept away from minors in the state and new AI models vetted before release. The Texas OpenAI lawsuit names Altman personally. Ken Paxton at AmericaFest 2025 in Phoenix Texas has taken OpenAI and… -
Anthropic president takes aim at OpenAI over Pentagon deal, questions rival’s motivesAnthropic President Daniela Amodei questioned whether rival OpenAI’s decision to strike a deal with the Pentagon after her company refused to budge on military AI restrictions was a “really principled stand” or an “opportunistic moment,”…
Related markets
All ai ›Which company has the best AI model end of October?
89%Google
- Google89%▲ 3
- Anthropic9%
- Meta<1%
18 more
- OpenAI<1%▼ 1
- Alibaba<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?
Nov 26, 2026even chance by
- October 3116%▼ 1
- November 1533%▼ 5
- November 3059%▲ 3
2 more
- December 1575%▼ 2
- December 3180%▼ 7
OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
Dec 12, 2027even chance by
- December 31, 202615%
- December 31, 202752%▲ 2
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
$2.26Thigh with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.26T.
- Reaches $1.5T96%
- Reaches $1.75T84%
- Falls to $800B4%
- Falls to $700B4%
Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
67%No release by October 31
- No release by October 3167%▲ 2
- October 2714%▼ 4
- October 297%▲ 3
11 more
- October 287%▲ 1
- October 301%▼ 1
- October 201%▼ 12
- October 311%▲ 1
- October 19<1%▼ 2
- October 21<1%▼ 5
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 23<1%▼ 4
- October 24<1%
- October 25<1%▼ 1
- October 26<1%▼ 4
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions