Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?

Polymarket World › Russia & Ukraine Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $3.8K today · $83.5K traded · $4.6K at stake · prices read 5 min ago

The odds

67%UAE
  • UAE67%▲ 12
  • Switzerland11%▼ 9
  • Turkey6%▲ 1
  • No Talks by December 31, 20276%▼ 2
  • USA3%▼ 2
  • Other - Europe1%
  • Germany1%
  • Saudi Arabia1%
  • Other - Middle East/North Africa1%
  • Hungary<1%
  • India<1%
  • Austria<1%
17 more
  • Slovakia<1%
  • Kazakhstan<1%
  • Azerbaijan<1%
  • Egypt<1%
  • Brazil<1%
  • South Africa<1%
  • Italy<1%
  • Serbia<1%
  • Other<1%
  • Russia<1%
  • Finland<1%
  • Belarus<1%
  • Qatar<1%
  • Poland<1%
  • China<1%
  • Ukraine<1%
  • Vatican City<1%

How the odds have moved

UAE: 42% on Oct 20, 67% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 27, 10 AM ETUAE: 62% → 67%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

  2. Oct 21, 8 PM ETUAE: 32% → 71%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
UAE 67% ▲ 12 67¢ 68¢ $1.47 $36.5K
Switzerland 11% ▼ 9 11¢ 13¢ $7.69 $5.1K
Turkey 6% ▲ 1 2¢ 11¢ $9.35 $6.5K
No Talks by December 31, 2027 6% ▼ 2 5¢ 7¢ $14.29 $13.8K
USA 3% ▼ 2 1¢ 6¢ $15.63 $4.1K
Other - Europe 1% 2¢ $50.00 $943
Germany 1% 2¢ $55.56 $469
Saudi Arabia 1% 2¢ $66.67 $1.3K
Other - Middle East/North Africa 1% 1¢ $90.91 $317
Hungary <1% 1¢ $100.00 $288
India <1% 1¢ $100.00 $2K
Austria <1% 1¢ $335
Slovakia <1% 1¢ $290
Kazakhstan <1% 1¢ $396
Azerbaijan <1% 1¢ $215
Egypt <1% 1¢ $166
Brazil <1% 1¢ $216
South Africa <1% 1¢ $166
Italy <1% 1¢ $771
Serbia <1% 1¢ $158
Other <1% 1¢ $1K
Russia <1% 1¢ $799
Finland <1% 1¢ $486
Belarus <1% 1¢ $575
Qatar <1% 0¢ 0¢ $1.3K
Poland <1% 1¢ $485
China <1% 0¢ $1.9K
Ukraine <1% 0¢ $1.7K
Vatican City <1% 0¢ $1.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Ukraine, Russia, Zelensky

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions