Next Claude Opus Model (5.6+): Text Arena Debut?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Jun 30, 2027 · $425 today · $11.2K traded · $1.6K at stake · prices read just now

The odds

1,524median

1,5001,560

Median 1,524Middle half 1,514 – 1,534

How the odds have moved

Median: 1,523 on Oct 20, 1,524 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
1510+	85%	▼ 2	81¢	88¢	$1.14	$2.1K
1520+	61%		58¢	64¢	$1.56	$1.7K
1530+	31%	▲ 2	28¢	33¢	$3.03	$3.6K
1540+	16%	▼ 2	11¢	18¢	$5.56	$2.7K
1550+	16%	▼ 9	11¢	22¢	$4.55	$1.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Anthropic, Claude, Claude Opus Model

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Cheapest Claude Opus Models (Oct 2026): Prices Compared | LiteLLMLiteLLM Model Catalog · 5 days agoCheapest Claude Opus Models: the top 7, sorted by blended price per 1m tokens, from LiteLLM's price file. Cheapest Claude Opus Models As of October 21, 2026, among LiteLLM's active models with a 32K-token context window or more, offered by…
Anthropic debuts Claude Duet personal AI agent. Here's what to know.CBS News · 3 days agoOctober 23, 2026 / 10:52 AM EDT / CBS News Anthropic has joined the race to develop AI agents that work autonomously on behalf of humans with Claude Duet, a new app it previewed this week. The agent competes with Meta's Muse and OpenAI's…
Claude Duet app is Anthropic's bet on agentsTechCrunch · 4 days agoBuy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. The AI world is flooded with personal and productivity-based assistants, with new ones launching every week. Now, Anthropic is entering this battle in the hopes of gaining…
Anthropic takes on Muse with Claude Duet, its new AI agentThe Verge · 4 days agoAnthropic just announced an AI agent competitor to Meta's Muse and OpenAI's Dots: Claude Duet. The new agent, designed for professionals and small business owners, is launching as a "research preview," according to Anthropic, and it's…
Anthropic’s new AI models claim reduced risk of autonomous attacksCrypto Briefing · 3 days agoEstefano Gomez is an editor at Crypto Briefing specializing in blockchain analysis, DeFi, and the intersection of crypto and digital art. He previously served as Editor in Chief at Interesante for over three years, where he covered…
Anthropic announces preview of Claude Duet, a personal AI agent to take on Muse, DotsCNBC · 4 days agoAnthropic on Wednesday announced a preview of Claude Duet, an artificial intelligence agent that will likely challenge OpenAI's Dots and Meta's Muse offerings. Claude Duet is designed for small businesses and professionals, Anthropic said…
Alloy joins Anthropic's Claude Partner NetworkYahoo Finance · 3 days agoThe Atlanta-based integrated marketing agency builds custom AI tools on Claude for brands and will certify its team through the Anthropic Partner Academy. Atlanta, Oct. 23, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Alloy has joined Anthropic's Claude…
Anthropic’s Formal Verification Research: What Claude ProvedKingy AI · 3 days agoAnthropic’s new formal-verification research makes a serious case for using AI to produce security evidence that a separate mathematical checker can inspect. The work could change how teams establish confidence in critical software…
Anthropic unveils Claude Duet AI agent appETCIO.com · 4 days agoET CIO Your Privacy is Important to us Opt out of the sale or sharing of personal information Anthropic unveils Claude Duet AI agent app Anthropic on Thursday unveiled Claude Duet, a standalone AI agent app designed to act as a proactive…
Anthropic's Claude now writes code and proves it safe automaticallyThe Decoder · 3 days agoAnthropic used Claude to mathematically prove that existing code is correct. The approach tackles a core problem with AI-generated software but comes with strict practical limits. Proving that software runs error-free under all…
Claude did not invent scorpion antivenomThe Verge · 4 days agoCitrini takes a stab at drug development. An investment research firm wanted to prove AI could revolutionize drug development. So they teamed up with Anthropic to see whether an unreleased version of Claude could make scorpion antivenom…
Anthropic unifies Claude Chat and Cowork for enterprise plansSeeking Alpha · 3 days agoAnthropic has unified Claude Chat and Cowork for enterprise plan subscribers that can be used on web, desktop and mobile devices. "The new unified Cla ... "The new unified Claude experience brings chat and Cowork together on web, desktop…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Settles onarena.ai

Trading closesJun 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$11.2K

Today$425

This week$1.9K

At stake$1.6K

In the news142 headlines today, 1,705 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model (5.6+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-n

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions