Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%▲ 1
- Ken Paxton36%
Install
Which Dems will underperform Kamala?
The odds
96%Tina Kotek: OR-Gov
- Tina Kotek: OR-Gov96%▼ 1
- Troy Jackson: ME-Sen80%
- Kathy Hochul: NY-Gov46%▼ 2
- Keisha Lance Bottoms: GA-Gov43%▲ 6
- Peggy Flanagan: MN-Sen39%▼ 1
- Angie Nixon: FL-Sen23%▲ 4
- Chris Pappas: NH-Sen21%▼ 1
- Abdul El-Sayed: MI-Sen19%▼ 6
- David Jolly: FL-Gov15%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Tina Kotek: OR-Gov: 93% on Oct 20, 96% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tina Kotek: OR-Gov | 96% | ▼ 1 | 94¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | $1.8K |
| Troy Jackson: ME-Sen | 80% | 79¢ | 81¢ | $1.23 | $2.6K | |
| Kathy Hochul: NY-Gov | 46% | ▼ 2 | 44¢ | 48¢ | $2.08 | $2K |
| Keisha Lance Bottoms: GA-Gov | 43% | ▲ 6 | 29¢ | 56¢ | $1.79 | $2.2K |
| Peggy Flanagan: MN-Sen | 39% | ▼ 1 | 35¢ | 42¢ | $2.38 | $2.5K |
| Angie Nixon: FL-Sen | 23% | ▲ 4 | 19¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | $2.5K |
| Chris Pappas: NH-Sen | 21% | ▼ 1 | 20¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | $1.4K |
| Abdul El-Sayed: MI-Sen | 19% | ▼ 6 | 17¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | $2.5K |
| David Jolly: FL-Gov | 15% | ▲ 1 | 13¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | $2.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Dems, Kamala
Search ›-
WATCH LIVE: Kamala Harris joins Chris Pappas for campaign rally in Portsmouth, NHFormer Vice President Kamala Harris campaigns alongside Democratic Senate nominee Chris Pappas at a rally in Portsmouth, New Hampshire. WATCH LIVE: Kamala Harris joins Chris Pappas for campaign rally in Portsmouth, NH Former Vice President… -
Dem infighting erupts over which candidates to fund in midterms homestretchDemocrats are squabbling over where to prioritize their limited cash across an expanded congressional battle map that some fear is distracting from critical governor’s races. Democrats are squabbling over spending for Senate candidates… -
GOP, Dems take on Georgia as midterms round cornerFormer Biden administration official Gevin Reynolds and Republican strategist Brian Robinson analyze the massive early voting turnout in Georgia as political stars head to the swing state. GOP, Dems take on Georgia as midterms round corner… -
Top LA journalist had fling with Dem SoCal lawmaker, let her write his stories: reportA high-profile Los Angeles immigration reporter has been fired amid allegations of ethical breaches, including claims he had a secret romantic relationship with a rising California state senator and allowed her to help write stories… -
WATCH LIVE: Dem Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign rally in San AntonioTexas Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico speaks at a "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" campaign rally in San Antonio. WATCH LIVE: Dem Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign rally in San Antonio Texas Democratic Senate nominee James… -
‘Friday Follies’: New town, new accent for Kamala HarrisFox News analyst Raymond Arroyo discusses former Vice President Kamala Harris’ word of the day and the latest WNBA controversy on ‘The Ingraham Angle.’ ... ‘Friday Follies’: New town, new accent for Kamala Harris Fox News analyst Raymond… - Energy abundance means a bright American future — if Dems don’t get in the wayA clear majority of American adults want our country to be fully energy independent, and the goal is easily in reach — if Democrats don’t prevent it. Per polling done for the Council for a Secure America, 53% of US adults agree that…
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Kamala Harris: We can’t count on the Supreme CourtFox News contributor Marc Thiessen discusses former Vice President Kamala Harris’ comments about the Supreme Court on ‘Fox & Friends.’ ... Kamala Harris: We can’t count on the Supreme Court Fox News contributor Marc Thiessen discusses… -
Illinois statewide races: Little-known GOP slate faces uphill battle against mostly incumbent DemsUpdated on: October 23, 2026 / 7:23 PM CDT / CBS Chicago When Illinois' Democrats gathered for their annual rally at the state fair in August, they reached from one end of the stage to the other. The party's candidates have occupied all… - Former Vice President Kamala Harris visiting New HampshireFormer vice president Kamala Harris to visit New Hampshire WMUR Former Vice President Kamala Harris will be making stops throughout the state Saturday. Senate candidate Chris Pappas will be joining her at some of those events. Harris is…
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Dems already bracing for a wounded — and dangerous — post-midterm Trump“In the history of our country, this is a defining moral moment,” U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Georgia) told a crowd outside Cargo Coffee in downtown Madison Friday, as he stood on stage with Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, the… -
Californians reveal their pick for Dem president — and it’s not Gavin NewsomCalifornia voters have revealed their top picks for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary — and Gov. Gavin Newsom didn’t even crack the top two, according to a new poll commissioned by the California Post. Golden State voters were asked…
Related markets
All senate ›Which party will win the U.S. Senate? (2026)
63%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party63%▼ 4
- Republican Party37%▲ 2
Texas Senate Election Winner
64%James Talarico (D)
- James Talarico (D)64%
- Ken Paxton (R)37%
Alaska Senate winner? (2026)
75%Democratic party
- Democratic party75%▼ 1
- Republican party25%
Michigan Senate Election Winner
72%Abdul El-Sayed (D)
- Abdul El-Sayed (D)72%▲ 1
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2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
65%Democrats sweep
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- D-House, R-Senate26%▲ 1
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1 more
- R-House, D-Senate1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.