Texas Senate winner? (2026)
66%James Talarico
- James Talarico66%▲ 2
- Ken Paxton35%▼ 1
Install
Next US Senate Minority Leader?
The odds
51%John Thune
- John Thune51%
- Chuck Schumer37%▼ 1
- John Barrasso4%
- Tom Cotton4%▲ 4
- Rick Scott4%▲ 1
- Mark Kelly3%
- Patty Murray1%
- Brian Schatz<1%
- Cory Booker<1%
How the odds have moved
John Thune: 46% on Oct 20, 51% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Thune | 51% | 51¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | $4.7K | |
| Chuck Schumer | 37% | ▼ 1 | 37¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | $5.9K |
| John Barrasso | 4% | 1¢ | 9¢ | $11.63 | $396 | |
| Tom Cotton | 4% | ▲ 4 | 1¢ | 9¢ | $11.63 | $319 |
| Rick Scott | 4% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.89 | $355 |
| Mark Kelly | 3% | 2¢ | 5¢ | $21.28 | $472 | |
| Patty Murray | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $52.63 | $489 | |
| Brian Schatz | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $350 | ||
| Cory Booker | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $628 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Senate Minority Leader, John Thune, Chuck Schumer
Search ›-
John Barrasso to campaign with Ken Paxton - Live Updates - POLITICOHe’s the most senior Senate Republican to hit the trail with the embattled Texas candidate. Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso will campaign with Ken Paxton next week in Texas as Republicans work overtime to try to hold onto the endangered… -
John Barrasso heads to Texas to stump for PaxtonBarrasso was one of outgoing Sen. Mitch McConnell's, R-Ky., "three Johns," along with Senate Majority Leader John Thune and ousted Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, whom Paxton defeated in the primary. Sen. John Barrasso, R-Wyo., the Republican… -
Election 2026 John ThuneIn this photo taken with a smart phone, Iowans Valerie Conaway Cote, a Democrat, right, and Jeanne Gates, an Independent, stage a small protest outside an event for Republican Senate ... Thune makes final push in red states as he scrambles… -
Chuck Schumer Goes FULL 'Quiet Part Out Loud' With Post Blasting Trump's Election Integrity EffortsThis year it's been discovered that not only do non-citizens manage to be registered to vote, but many of them actually cast ballots, which cancel out the votes of citizens. Yes indeed, the thing that we've been assured never happens… -
Dem bucks party over alleged Alaska vote-siphoning effort: 'Neither party should be doing it'Democratic gubernatorial nominee Rob Sand discusses the dispute involving two Alaska Senate candidates who share the name Dan Sullivan during an exclusive interview with Fox News. Iowa Democratic gubernatorial nominee Rob Sand is… -
John Barrasso to Campaign with Ken Paxton"Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso will campaign with Ken Paxton next week in Texas as Republicans work overtime to try to hold onto the endangered seat," Politico reports. Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192 “Senate Majority Whip John… -
Joe Manchin rips Chuck Schumer for working against ‘dear friend’ Susan Collins: ‘he’s crazy’Former Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin took a swipe at Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer Wednesday for working to oust his “dear friend” Sen. Susan Collins — calling him “crazy” for targeting the Maine Republican. Manchin, who left the… -
Chuck Schumer PAC spends $1.2 million for Scott Colom as pundits say Hyde-Smith lead is waningBy Michael Goldberg | Originally published by Mississippi Today A top Democratic super PAC focused on U.S. Senate races announced Tuesday that it will spend $1.2 million on an ad campaign in Mississippi for Scott Colom. The ad, paid for by… -
Dem Senate hopeful rejects Schumer but benefits from millions in spending by his alliesSen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., told Fox News Digital that if Adam Hamilton really meant he would not support Chuck Schumer to lead Democrats, he would reject the millions flowing into Kansas from Schumer and national Democrats. WICHITA, Kan… -
Republican group places seven-figure ad buy in MississippiThe top Senate Republican super PAC is spending more than $1 million in Mississippi’s Senate race to defend GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and stave off an upset bid from Democratic candidate Scott Colom, according to details shared with… -
Funeral held for Charles Rangel, longtime N.Y. congressman and son of HarlemUpdated on: June 13, 2025 / 6:04 PM EDT / CBS New York Former Rep. Charles Rangel was laid to rest Friday with a funeral at St. Patrick's Cathedral in Manhattan. The longtime New York congressman died last month at the age of 94. A… -
Democrats’ top Senate super PAC has raised $354M this cycle - Live Updates - POLITICOThe figure is a record for the group and includes roughly $29 million in the first two weeks of October. Democratsâ top Senate-focused super PAC will report raising $354 million since the start of the start of the cycle through Oct 14…
Related markets
All senate ›Texas Senate Election Winner
65%James Talarico (D)
- James Talarico (D)65%▲ 1
- Ken Paxton (R)36%▼ 1
Which party will win the U.S. Senate? (2026)
65%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party65%▲ 2
- Republican Party36%▼ 2
South Carolina Senate winner? (2026)
76%Darline Graham
- Darline Graham76%▼ 4
- Annie Andrews25%▲ 4
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
63%Democrats sweep
- Democrats sweep63%▼ 1
- D-House, R-Senate28%▲ 2
- Republicans sweep9%
1 more
- R-House, D-Senate1%
Michigan Senate winner? (2026)
66%Abdul El-Sayed
- Abdul El-Sayed66%▼ 1
- Mike Rogers35%▲ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions