Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Nov 30 · $869 today · $14.5K traded · $1.4K at stake · prices read 7 min ago

The odds

22%Google

Google22%▼ 10
Meta20%▲ 7
OpenAI17%
Alibaba15%▲ 1
Moonshot9%▼ 2
DeepSeek4%▲ 2
Thinky3%
Z.ai3%
Tencent3%
Anthropic2%
SpaceXAI1%▼ 2
Xiaomi1%▼ 2

4 more

MiniMax<1%
ByteDance<1%▼ 2
Poolside<1%
Mistral<1%

How the odds have moved

Google: 21% on Oct 20, 22% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Google	22%	▼ 10	20¢	30¢	$3.33	$1.2K
Meta	20%	▲ 7	20¢	24¢	$4.17	$1.6K
OpenAI	17%		17¢	20¢	$4.95	$2.9K
Alibaba	15%	▲ 1	14¢	20¢	$5.00	$1.4K
Moonshot	9%	▼ 2	7¢	13¢	$7.69	$1.7K
DeepSeek	4%	▲ 2	1¢	8¢	$13.33	$650
Thinky	3%		1¢	7¢	$14.71	$526
Z.ai	3%		2¢	5¢	$21.28	$610
Tencent	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.00	$423
Anthropic	2%		1¢	3¢	$34.48	$427
SpaceXAI	1%	▼ 2	1¢	2¢	$50.00	$487
Xiaomi	1%	▼ 2	1¢	3¢	$40.00	$495
MiniMax	<1%		0¢	1¢		$403
ByteDance	<1%	▼ 2	0¢	1¢		$417
Poolside	<1%		0¢	0¢		$483
Mistral	<1%		0¢	0¢		$791

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab

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Tech › AI

Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

71%Meta

Meta71%▲ 72
Google7%▼ 50
Moonshot7%▼ 10

13 more

Alibaba5%▼ 15
OpenAI3%▼ 2
Anthropic2%▼ 1
Z.ai2%
SpaceXAI1%▼ 1
DeepSeek1%
Mistral1%
Thinky<1%
ByteDance<1%
Xiaomi<1%
Tencent<1%
MiniMax<1%
Poolside<1%

Tech › AI

DeepSeek market share this week (DeepSeek market share - Oct 19, 2026)

26.49%median

21.6%29%

Median 26.49%Middle half 25.3% – 27.61%

Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

Oct 27, 2026even chance by

October 2113%▼ 29
October 2224%▼ 35
October 2438%▼ 39

2 more

October 3174%▼ 10
December 3196%▼ 2

Tech › AI

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

$2.14Thigh with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.14T.

Reaches $1.5T90%
Reaches $1.75T69%

Falls to $800B4%
Falls to $700B4%

Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T

Tech › AI

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

73%Google

Google73%▲ 2
Anthropic24%▼ 4
OpenAI1%

18 more

Meta1%
Alibaba<1%
Moonshot<1%
Baidu<1%
Z.ai<1%
Xiaomi<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Amazon<1%
ByteDance<1%
Nvidia<1%
Thinky<1%
MiniMax<1%
Mistral<1%
Meituan<1%
Tencent<1%
StepFun<1%
Microsoft<1%

Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

27%No release by October 31

No release by October 3127%▲ 11
October 2715%▲ 4
October 2012%▼ 21

11 more

October 2211%▼ 10
October 295%▲ 4
October 314%▲ 4
October 244%▼ 1
October 233%▼ 2
October 212%▼ 5
October 262%▲ 1
October 282%
October 302%▲ 1
October 251%
October 19<1%▼ 2

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesNov 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$14.5K

Today$869

This week$14.5K

At stake$1.4K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab rank

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

Alibaba Group Holding LimitedBABA · about the company108.57−0.49%
Alphabet Inc.GOOGL · about the company344.18+1.05%
Meta Platforms, Inc.META · about the company705.44−0.55%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.