Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Sat 11:59 PM ET · $78 today · $20.9K traded · $7.3K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

11%Alibaba

Alibaba11%▲ 3
Mistral9%▼ 3
Google6%
Z.ai3%
SpaceXAI3%
Anthropic3%
Moonshot3%
DeepSeek3%
ByteDance2%
Amazon2%
Meta2%
Meituan1%

2 more

Baidu1%
Microsoft1%

How the odds have moved

Alibaba: 13% on Oct 20, 11% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
✓ OpenAI	>99%	▲ 15	100¢	100¢		$2.8K
Alibaba	11%	▲ 3	5¢	17¢	$6.02	$598
Mistral	9%	▼ 3	3¢	15¢	$6.76	$786
Google	6%		5¢	6¢	$16.67	$1.1K
Z.ai	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.41	$621
SpaceXAI	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.41	$1.6K
Anthropic	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.41	$3.9K
Moonshot	3%		1¢	5¢	$21.74	$723
DeepSeek	3%		1¢	5¢	$21.28	$855
ByteDance	2%		0¢	4¢	$23.81	$955
Amazon	2%		1¢	4¢	$27.03	$2K
Meta	2%		0¢	3¢	$35.71	$2K
Meituan	1%		0¢	2¢	$41.67	$539
Baidu	1%		0¢	2¢	$50.00	$512
Microsoft	1%		0¢	2¢	$52.63	$1.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Which company has the best AI model end of October?

86%Google

Google86%▼ 4
Anthropic10%▲ 2
OpenAI1%

18 more

Meta<1%
Moonshot<1%
Alibaba<1%
Baidu<1%
Z.ai<1%
Xiaomi<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Amazon<1%
ByteDance<1%
Nvidia<1%
Thinky<1%
MiniMax<1%
Mistral<1%
Meituan<1%
Tencent<1%
StepFun<1%
Microsoft<1%

Tech › AI

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

53%Anthropic

Anthropic53%▲ 3
Google36%▼ 3
OpenAI6%

12 more

Meta1%
xAI1%
Alibaba1%
Moonshot1%
Z.ai<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Mistral<1%
Microsoft<1%
ByteDance<1%
Meituan<1%
Amazon<1%
Baidu<1%

Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

73%No release by October 31

No release by October 3173%▲ 7
October 2714%▼ 3
October 294%▲ 1

11 more

October 284%▲ 1
October 262%▼ 2
October 302%▼ 1
October 201%▼ 12
October 31<1%▼ 1
October 19<1%▼ 2
October 21<1%▼ 5
October 22<1%▼ 14
October 23<1%▼ 4
October 24<1%
October 25<1%▼ 1

Tech › AI

Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?

1,410median

1,3801,480

Median 1,410Middle half 1,405 – 1,415

Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

Nov 22, 2026even chance by

October 21<1%▼ 12
October 22<1%▼ 14
October 24<1%▼ 1

2 more

October 3126%▼ 6
December 3195%

Tech › AI

Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

34%December 31, 2028

December 31, 20264%
June 30, 202711%
December 31, 202714%

1 more

December 31, 202834%▲ 11

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesOct 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$20.9K

Today$78

This week$1.7K

At stake$7.3K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

On August 18, 2026, OpenAI announced it had paused some frontier reinforcement learning training to meet alignment, security, and monitoring standards, and on September 1, 2026, Anthropic disclosed that it had paused some training following unauthorized actions by its models. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it has paused or will pause training of one or more of its AI models over safety, alignment, or security concerns between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

Amazon.com, Inc.AMZN · about the company248.00−0.95%
Alibaba Group Holding LimitedBABA · about the company99.64−2.14%
Baidu, Inc.BIDU · about the company77.20−1.00%
Alphabet Inc.GOOGL · about the company320.21−1.24%
Meta Platforms, Inc.META · about the company642.62−0.96%
Microsoft CorporationMSFT · about the company524.51+0.66%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions