Texas Senate winner? (2026)
68%James Talarico
- James Talarico68%▲ 4
- Ken Paxton33%▼ 4
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California Senate winner? (2028)
The odds
91%Democratic party
- Democratic party91%
- Republican party9%
How the odds have moved
Democratic party: 87% on Oct 19, 91% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic party | 91% | 90¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | 417 | |
| Republican party | 9% | 7¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 1.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: California Senate
Search ›- With pressure from Trump, California Senate hears resolution on mail-in ballotsA Senate committee on Tuesday advanced a resolution declaring California’s support of its current mail-in ballot system amid ongoing criticism by President Donald Trump about the state’s recent primary election. The measure was a direct…
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California law draws distinct definition between e-bikes and e-motosCalifornia has brought some clarity to the concerningly opaque legal lines between electric bikes and electric motorcycles after it recently enacted a law that clearly defines the differences between the two vehicles. As detailed in its… -
California Should Not Get To Set Policy For All Of The USAuthored by Curtis Hill via RealClearMarkets, California has decided it should dictate how the rest of America packages everything from cereal and soap to industrial spare parts. Seventeen Republican attorneys general have filed suit to… -
Election 2026: Race for California’s 4th Congressional District, between veteran Thompson, newcomer Jones could hinge on whether DC experience is asset or liabilityToward the end of an Oct. 7 debate televised by KCRA Sacramento, the moderators hit Rep. Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones, Democratic rivals for the redrawn 4th District congressional seat, with a lightning round of yes-or-no… -
Trump Scores a Major Immigration Win From the Court Democrats Never Saw ComingPresident Trump just won a major immigration-enforcement victory in a place Democrats have spent years treating as friendly territory: the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals. A unanimous three-judge panel ruled that California cannot dictate… -
Youth rally against the OVPPope Leo XIV on Wednesday, 14 October, called for stronger family bonds, urging parents and children to revive the… Jeffrey G. Damicog·5 hours ago Senate Finance Committee chairperson JV Ejercito on Wednesday questioned reductions in… -
SWS: Self-rated poverty rises to 16.8 million families in Q3Families rating themselves as mahirap (Poor) rose by six points from 49% to 55%, translating to an estimated 16.8 million families. Meanwhile, self-rated food poverty increased by eight points, from 36% to 44%, representing roughly 13.3… -
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Central Valley Democratic candidates criticize party’s lack of investment in rural areasCongressional candidate Michael Masuda and his guest, California Senate candidate Jaron Brandon, concluded a series of town halls through California’s 5th District at Modesto’s St. Paul Episcopalian Church on Thursday. Despite being… -
Are Our Coastal Calamities “Predictable Emergencies?”In the classic, hilarious Monty Python skit, the ironic refrain was “Nobody expected the Spanish Inquisition!” A la Monty Python, they are not unexpected. As I wrote in a 4-part series in the LB Independent 6 months ago, several years ago…
Related markets
All senate ›Texas Senate Election Winner
68%James Talarico (D)
- James Talarico (D)68%▲ 3
- Ken Paxton (R)33%▼ 3
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
67%Democrats sweep
- Democrats sweep67%▲ 3
- D-House, R-Senate24%▼ 2
- Republicans sweep9%▼ 1
1 more
- R-House, D-Senate1%
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
69%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party69%▲ 3
- Republican Party32%▼ 3
Idaho Senate winner? (2026)
93%Jim Risch
- Jim Risch93%▼ 1
- Todd Achilles6%
- David Roth<1%
Ohio Senate winner? (2026)
71%Sherrod Brown
- Sherrod Brown71%▲ 6
- Jon Husted30%▼ 5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.