Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.5median
140230
Median 189.5Middle half 176.9 – 200.8
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When will Zack Polanski leave as Green Party leader?
The odds
23%Before Jul 1, 2027
- Before Nov 1, 20263%▼ 3
- Before Jan 1, 20279%
- Before Jul 1, 202723%
How the odds have moved
Before Nov 1, 2026: 6% on Oct 19, 3% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 3% | ▼ 3 | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 1.1K |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 9% | 7¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 1.9K | |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 23% | 19¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | 204 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Green Party of England and Wales, Zack Polanski, Green
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Board of Deputies of British Jews declares Greens to be racist partyThe Green Party of England and Wales has been declared a racist organisation by the Board of Deputies of British Jews. The Jewish body, which is the largest in the UK, was responding to the "Zionism is racism" policy motion passed at the… -
Green Party condemned as ‘racist’ by Board of Deputies over anti-Zionist policyDavid Hughes, Press Association Political Editor Zack Polanski’s Green Party has been labelled “racist” by the Board of Deputies of British Jews. The major Jewish organisation condemned the Green Party of England and Wales over the… -
Nigel Farage would lose head-to-head contest to every other political leader except Zack Polanski, poll showsReform leader even beaten by the head of the party that has outflanked his on the right, Restore’s Rupert Lowe Nigel Farage would lose in a direct head-to-head with every other political leader except Zack Polanski, a new survey has shown… -
Green Party branded ‘racist’ by major Jewish organisation after passing ‘Zionism is racism’ motionZACK Polanski’s Green Party has been branded “racist” by the Board of Deputies of British Jews. The party was condemned after they passed the “Zionism is racism” policy motion at its conference earlier this month. The major Jewish… -
Board of Deputies formally declares Green Party has 'become a racist party' after its anti-Zionist policyBritain's largest Jewish group have formally declared Zack Polanski's Green Party 'racist' and accused the party of 'giving prejudice against Jews a political licence'. The Board of Deputies of British Jews condemned the party following… -
Green members reject support for new nuclear in ScotlandSCOTTISH Greens members have overwhelmingly rejected plans to support new nuclear power in Scotland. The controversial motion was debated at the Scottish Greens conference in Inverness on Sunday, with 48 voting in favour, 193 against and… -
New poll shows Labour 'resurgent' as Andy Burnham issued warningANDY Burnham has made the Labour Party a “resurgent” force in British politics, new polling has found. Labour are up five points to 32% in the latest research from Ipsos which also found that the Conservatives have retaken second place… -
Climate scientists and campaigners round on English Greens over nuclear U-turnZACK Polanski’s English and Welsh Greens have been sharply criticised by a raft of leading climate campaigners and scientists for ditching their blanket opposition to nuclear power. An open letter signed by 39 top activists and eminent… -
Zack Polanski's party urges Brits ‘inspired by French protests’ to march in UK cityZack Polanski's party has encouraged Brits "inspired by protests in France" to march in London. France has suffered days of violent unrest after peaceful protests descended into chaos on Saturday, leaving 1,000 police officers injured… - Board of Deputies of British Jews declares Green Party a 'racist party' | The Jerusalem PostThe Board of Deputies of British Jews has passed a motion declaring that the UK Green Party is a racist party. The resolution, adopted at the Board’s October Plenary Meeting, condemns the Green Party’s decision to adopt a policy branding…
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Green councillors face Labour deadline to disown Zionism policyGreen leader Zack Polanski has faced criticism over his response to the Zionism motion Labour is set to decide whether to end power-sharing with Green councillors after demanding they disown their party's policy that Zionism is a form of… -
Zack Polanski’s thwarted promiseOn a drizzly morning last September, Zack Polanski delivered his first speech as leader of the Green Party. The avowed eco-populist, who won the leadership election with 84 per cent of the members’ vo On a drizzly morning last September…
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All world leaders ›Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
296.7median
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When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
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- Before Nov 1, 20261%▼ 1
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- Before Feb 1, 20278%▼ 1
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- Before Sep 1, 202734%
- Before Oct 1, 202737%
- Before Nov 1, 202741%
- Before Dec 1, 202741%
- Before Jan 1, 202847%▼ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202857%▲ 2
- Before Jan 1, 202960%
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
194.5median
160230
Median 194.5Middle half 187.4 – 202.9
Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
296.8median
250340
Median 296.8Middle half 290.4 – 306.3
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
197.1median
160230
Median 197.1Middle half 189.4 – 202.4
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions