Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)
185.9median
140230
Median 185.9Middle half 175.9 – 197.1
Install
What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration? (Before Jan 20, 2029)
The odds
26%World Trade Organization
- World Trade Organization26%
- OECD20%▲ 1
- World Bank Group19%
- Inter-American Development Bank18%
- International Monetary Fund16%
- Interpol15%▲ 1
- United Nations11%
- G75%
- G205%
- International Atomic Energy Agency3%
How the odds have moved
World Trade Organization: 27% on Oct 20, 26% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World Trade Organization | 26% | 23¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | 5.5K | |
| OECD | 20% | ▲ 1 | 16¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 1.1K |
| World Bank Group | 19% | 14¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 713 | |
| Inter-American Development Bank | 18% | 13¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 293 | |
| International Monetary Fund | 16% | 12¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 254 | |
| Interpol | 15% | ▲ 1 | 12¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 1.4K |
| United Nations | 11% | 9¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 9.1K | |
| G7 | 5% | 2¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 1.5K | |
| G20 | 5% | 2¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 1.1K | |
| International Atomic Energy Agency | 3% | 2¢ | 5¢ | $20.41 | 1.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: World Trade Organization, World Bank Group
Search ›-
World Bank Group at COP17 on BiodiversityThe World Bank Group is attending the Conference of the Parties (COP17) on Biodiversity in Yerevan, Armenia, under the theme "Taking Action for Nature," to help countries unlock nature as an engine of ... The World Bank Group at COP17 on… -
World Bank Group Launches First Digital Strategy to Close Global Digital DivideThe initiative responds to significant digital divides, with over 2 billion people offline globally in 2025 and low internet usage in low-income countries. Alongside the strategy, the World Bank Group announced an AI Infrastructure and… -
UAE to host the 2029 World Bank Group and IMF Annual Meetings in Abu DhabiThe UAE has formally signed an agreement to host the 2029 Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Abu Dhabi, reinforcing the country’s growing role in international economic cooperation and… -
ADFD and World Bank Group partner to scale development impactZawya ADFD and World Bank Group partner to scale development impact To advance sustainable economic development, strengthen resilience and improve livelihoods in developing countries Bangkok, Thailand: Abu Dhabi Fund for Development (ADFD)… -
Oman's participation in meetings of IMF, World Bank Group concludesTimes of Oman Oman's participation in meetings of IMF, World Bank Group concludes Bangkok: The Sultanate of Oman, represented by the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Oman (CBO), concluded on Sunday its participation in the 2026… -
Oman Concludes Participation in Meetings of International Monetary Fund, World Bank GroupHome - Oman Concludes Participation in Meetings of International Monetary Fund, World Bank Group China and North Korea Open New Yalu River Bridge After 12-Year Delay Oman Launches 12th Issue of Local Sovereign Sukuk Muscat Stock Exchange… -
UAE concludes participation in IMF and World Bank Group Annual Meetings in BangkokBangkok: The United Arab Emirates has concluded its active participation in the 2026 Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG), held in Bangkok, Thailand, from 12 to 18 October, with H.E… -
The World Bank Group, Netherlands, UNDP, UNOPS and national stakeholders initiate US$150 million project to safeguard Yemen’s water resourcesWorld Bank Group, Netherlands, UNDP, UNOPS, Ministry of Water and Environment, Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Fisheries initiate the implementation of the Yemen Improved Water Management and Irrigation for Sustainability and… -
Transcript of Panel Discussion on Small AI: More and Better Jobs at the World Bank Group (WBG) – International Monetary Fund (IMF) Annual Meetings on 12 October 2026 in Bangkok, ThailandCall the 24/7 ScamShield Helpline at 1799 if you are unsure if something is a scam. Rajini Vaidyanathan, Moderator and Chief Presenter of BBC World Service Moderator: Do join me in welcoming three leaders who are helping to shape that… -
UAE signs agreement to host 2029 World Bank Group and IMF Annual Meetings in Abu DhabiWAM 18 Oct 2026, 15:20 GMT+10 BANGKOK, 18th October, 2026 (WAM) -- The United Arab Emirates has signed the agreement to host the 2029 Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group (WBG) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Abu Dhabi. The… - UAE concludes participation in IMF & World Bank Group annual meetings in Bangkok1 hour ago Economy The United Arab Emirates has concluded its active participation in the 2026 Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG), held in Bangkok, Thailand, from 12 to 18 October, with…
-
CBUAE concludes successful participation in IMF and World Bank Group Annual Meetings in BangkokA key engagement was the MENAP Central Bank Governors and Finance Ministers Meeting with the IMF, where H.E. Khaled Mohamed Balama delivered the UAE’s keynote address. His Excellency highlighted the UAE’s leading model of structural…
Related markets
All world leaders ›Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
197.8median
160230
Median 197.8Middle half 188.9 – 203.0
Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
293.1median
250340
Median 293.1Middle half 282.5 – 308.1
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
192.8median
160230
Median 192.8Middle half 185.7 – 202.7
Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
295.1median
250340
Median 295.1Middle half 285 – 306.0
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
187.8median
140230
Median 187.8Middle half 175.1 – 201.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.