Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.3median
140230
Median 189.3Middle half 177.4 – 200.9
Install
When will Wales call a snap election?
The odds
14%Before Jan 1, 2028
- Before Jul 1, 20273%
- Before Jan 1, 202814%
How the odds have moved
Before Jul 1, 2027: 3% on Oct 20, 3% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 3% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 2.6K | |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 14% | 10¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 7.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Wales, Senedd
Search ›-
Highlights: Japan 0-17 WalesWatch the highlights as Wales secure victory over Japan in Tokyo. Two tries from Seren Lockwood and one from Kelsey Jones earned the win for Sean Lynn's side. The teams will meet again on Saturday, 31 October (07:00 GMT). Up Next. Jones… -
Fantastique - BBC National Orchestra of WalesThis programme traces a journey from momentary spring light to one of the most vivid musical imaginations of the nineteenth century. Opening with Lilli Boulanger’s D’un matin de printemps, which captures the energy of a spring morning… -
Lockwood seals Wales win in JapanScrum-half Seren Lockwood scored two tries as Wales beat Japan 17-0 in Tokyo in the WXV Series. This victory also marked the first time since November 2018 that Wales have finished a match without conceding a point. Lockwood seals Wales… -
Wales great Faletau suffers fresh injury blowTaulupe Faletau made his Wales debut in 2011 Wales number eight Taulupe Faletau has been sidelined again after an injury blow on his Cardiff comeback. The 35-year-old made his first appearance since March in the Champions Cup defeat by… -
The Army Officer playing for Wales at a World CupJade Mullen is the captain of the Army rugby union team Jade Mullen's journey to the Women's Rugby League World Cup has been an unconventional one. A last-minute code switch within the sport allowed her to earn a place in Wales' squad for… -
Lockwood opens scoring for Wales in JapanScrum-half Seren Lockwood opened the scoring for Wales in Tokyo as they took a 7-0 lead into half-time against Japan in their WXV contest. Wales had an early try ruled out for obstruction before Lockwood's third international try gave… -
Why winning ugly is just as important for WalesWales are currently ranked 11th in the world having dropped to an all-time low of 13th in September Wales set out their intention of returning to the world's top six before the start of their two Test series against Japan. And while their… -
Wales grind out frustrating WXV win against JapanWales have claimed victory in all three Tests against Japan Tries: Lockwood 2, K Jones Con: Bell Wales ground out a win over Japan in tricky Tokyo conditions to secure a second victory of their WXV campaign. Swirling wind, rain and… -
Wales plans to ban steel pylons as government launches consultationBuilding pylons in Wales could be a thing of the past, with the country's ministers instead wanting to bury energy cables underground The Welsh government has announced plans to ban the use of traditional steel pylons to support… -
Wales look to show top-six credentials in JapanWales have won their past two Test meetings with Japan Wales attempt to hold onto 11th place in World Rugby's rankings in Tokyo on Saturday, but head coach Sean Lynn has the top six in his sights. After the encouragement of September… -
North Wales Crusaders set for RFL talks over futureA previous incarnation of Crusaders played in Super League between 2009 and 2011 North Wales Crusaders officials are to hold talks with the Rugby Football League (RFL) in a bid to save the club. Crusaders withdrew from the process of… -
Fourteen-try Samoa thrash Wales at World CupSamoa had lost their opening World Cup fixture 40-0 against Australia Tries: Clarke, Ekepati 3, Mino-Sinapati 2, Hall, Taulelei-Siala 2, Lolesio, Isa'ako, Tagoai, Crichton Ropati, Papalii Goals: Piliae-Rasabale 10 Wales suffered a second…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions