Spanish general election: People's Party vote percent
31.32%median
26%38%
Median 31.32%Middle half 29.38% – 33.4%
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Will PP and Vox win 50% of the vote in Spain's election?
The odds
41%chance▼ 31
How the odds have moved
Yes: 48% on Oct 20, 41% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 24, 11 PM ET42% → 71%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 41% | ▼ 31 | 38¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 15.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: PP and Vox, Spain
Search ›- PP and Vox Seek Pact to Block Sánchez’s Allies From Controlling Spain’s SenateSpain’s next general election could reshape the balance of power in the Senate, with the PP and Vox now discussing […] PP and Vox Seek Pact to Block Sánchez’s Allies From Controlling Spain’s Senate The parties are weighing candidate…
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The PP and Vox agree on a marriage of convenience for 29-NUnlike the 2023 elections, Feijóo and Abascal avoid attacking each other, aware that they are condemned to understand each other -
What could the PP and Vox do if they control the Congress and the Senate?Diari ARA In the eyes of the majority of the population, the Senate may seem like a representative chamber with little utility in the day-to-day of parliamentary politics However, the electoral call has shown that it is a contested terrain… -
General strike on November 11 in Maspalomas against the PP and Vox parties during peak tourist season in southern Gran CanariaA general strike has been called for November 11 in Maspalomas to protest against the PP and Vox parties during the peak tourist season in Gran Canaria. Digital newspaper of Maspalomas and southern Gran Canaria General strike on November… -
PP and Vox weigh Senate pact to secure three-fifths majorityFrom the viewpoint of Spain, Barcelona is covered as a Spanish city where local decisions, weather, transport, housing, tourism and public safety affect everyday routines.Stories follow city events, incidents, festivals, road changes… -
Spain’s New Parliament Meets December 23Spain’s new parliament will meet for the first time on 23 December 2026, 24 days after the Spain Election 2026 vote on 29 November. The session opens at 10:00 in Madrid (4:00 a.m. ET), according to the Royal Decree that called the… - Spain’s Prime Minister Vows Abortion ShieldThis story is part of our coverage of the Spain election 2026. The live odds, the polls and every report on the 29 November vote are in our Spain election 2026 dossier. This story is part of our coverage of the Europe political crisis. Why…
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Spain’s Right Loses Ground in Latest PollThis story is part of our coverage of the Spain Election 2026. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide. Latest: Spain's Right Eyes Senate Deal Before Vote The conservative People’s Party (PP) led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo has lost… -
Spain Polls Split Ahead of 29 November VoteSpain votes on Sunday, 29 November 2026, and the polls disagree sharply on who is ahead. Most private pollsters favour the conservative People’s Party (PP), while the state-run CIS survey has the ruling Socialists (PSOE) well in front. Our… -
Spain’s Right Eyes Senate Deal Before VoteSpain’s conservative Popular Party (PP) wants its rival on the right, Vox, to skip Senate races in provinces it cannot win. The idea would stop right-wing votes from splitting, and parties must file candidate lists by Monday, 26 October… -
The PSOE, very close to taking eleven seats from the right (and to losing a few, too)As happened three years ago, the right-wing bloc starts with an advantage in the general election race. There is approximately one month left until the elections, and the average for the PP and Vox is situated above 190 seats, comfortably… -
Mamdani gives migrants tips to avoid ICE in SpanishNew York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani delivers an anti-ICE message in Spanish, informing illegal immigrants about ways to avoid ICE. Mamdani gives migrants tips to avoid ICE in Spanish New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani delivers an anti-ICE…
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