Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.68%median
14%34%
Median 28.68%Middle half 26.33% – 31.08%
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Texas Senate election: Ken Paxton vote percent
The odds
48.45%median
40%58%
Median 48.45%Middle half 46.55% – 50.74%
How the odds have moved
Median: 48.59% on Oct 20, 48.45% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 42% | 98% | 95¢ | $1.03 | 316 | ||
| At least 44% | 96% | 91¢ | $1.05 | 2.00 | ||
| At least 46% | 81% | 76¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | 249 | |
| At least 47% | 70% | ▲ 1 | 65¢ | 75¢ | $1.33 | 111 |
| At least 48% | 57% | ▲ 1 | 52¢ | 62¢ | $1.61 | 909 |
| At least 49% | 42% | 39¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | 254 | |
| At least 50% | 30% | ▲ 2 | 25¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 2.3K |
| At least 52% | 17% | ▼ 2 | 12¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | 3.4K |
| At least 54% | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | 906 | ||
| At least 56% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | 305 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Texas Senate, Ken Paxton
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Voters’ rising ire at corruption plays central role in Texas Senate raceBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The race between Ken… -
How Christianity Became a Battleground in the Texas Senate RaceOct 25, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are making Christianity a defining issue in the home stretch of Texas’ U.S. Senate race, offering sharply different visions of what faith should mean in… -
CBS News political experts weigh in on Texas Senate race halfway through early votingOctober 25, 2026 / 6:00 AM CDT / CBS Texas With the early voting period halfway over and Election Day looming, the candidates for U.S. Senate in Texas continue to cross the state to get their supporters to the polls. Both the Democratic… -
Talarico is trying to deceive the voters of Texas: Ken PaxtonTexas GOP U.S. Senate nominee Ken Paxton discusses his upcoming race against Democrat James Talarico on 'Hannity.' ... Talarico is trying to deceive the voters of Texas: Ken Paxton Texas GOP U.S. Senate nominee Ken Paxton discusses his… -
Ken Paxton blasts James Talarico as 'radical Democrat' during Texas campaign stopTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton criticized Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico during a campaign stop, accusing him of supporting socialist policies. Ken Paxton blasts James Talarico as 'radical Democrat' during Texas… -
Poll shows Talarico leading Paxton in Texas Senate race, CBS News political analysts weigh inCBS News Executive Director of Elections and Surveys, Anthony Salvanto, and CBS News Senior White House and Political Correspondent Ed O'Keefe discuss their main takeaways from polls showing Democratic candidate James Talarico in the lead… - George W Bush’s younger brother breaks with Trump, snubs Ken Paxton in Texas Senate raceWASHINGTON, DC: Neil Bush, the younger brother of former President George W Bush and the fourth child of former President George HW Bush, didn’t hold back in criticizing President Donald Trump and his pick for the Texas Senate race. Neil…
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WATCH LIVE: Texas AG Ken Paxton holds campaign event in Selma, TexasTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton rallies supporters during a "Come and Take It" campaign tour stop in Selma, Texas. WATCH LIVE: Texas AG Ken Paxton holds campaign event in Selma, Texas Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton rallies supporters… -
Texas Senate race: Talarico campaign turns its fire on Elon MuskJames Talarico's campaign hit back at Elon Musk Thursday, calling the 2026 election cycle's top spender out for his cash infusion in the Texas Senate race amid an ongoing feud between the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Texas and the… -
A Democratic win in Texas is a long shot – but Ken Paxton’s weakness is obviousRepublicans are resorting to childish taunts to defend an uncommonly dishonorable state attorney general It’s a bit like Lucy with the football. Every few years, Democrats convince themselves that a Texas Senate seat might finally switch… -
Bush dynasty delivers another blow to GOP in Texas Senate battle as family member breaks ranksTexas voters split in the Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton as poll numbers show a dead heat. Tess Smith and Sarah Gardner join the panel to discuss concerns that Talarico is too liberal and examine his past controversial… -
Texas Senate race tied as early voting surgesFox News host Will Cain discusses the latest in the deadlocked Texas Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico on 'The Will Cain Show' ... Texas Senate race tied as early voting surges Fox News host Will Cain discusses the latest…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions