Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.68%median
14%34%
Median 28.68%Middle half 26.33% – 31.08%
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Texas Senate election: James Talarico vote percent
The odds
50.03%median
40%58%
Median 50.03%Middle half 48.13% – 51.59%
How the odds have moved
Median: 49.38% on Oct 20, 50.03% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 42% | 98% | ▼ 1 | 95¢ | $1.03 | 641 | |
| At least 44% | 96% | ▲ 1 | 94¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 1.0K |
| At least 46% | 91% | ▲ 5 | 87¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 2.2K |
| At least 48% | 77% | ▲ 11 | 73¢ | 80¢ | $1.25 | 1.0K |
| At least 49% | 65% | ▲ 9 | 61¢ | 69¢ | $1.45 | 423 |
| At least 50% | 51% | ▲ 10 | 46¢ | 55¢ | $1.82 | 1.6K |
| At least 52% | 19% | ▲ 3 | 14¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 1.1K |
| At least 54% | 7% | ▲ 1 | 6¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 1.1K |
| At least 56% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | 736 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Texas Senate, James Talarico
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WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign concert in AustinDemocrat James Talarico speaks to supporters and hosts a "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" campaign tour concert in Austin, Texas. WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign concert in Austin Democrat James Talarico speaks to… -
Texas Senate race heats up as James Talarico faces voter scrutinyFox News Texas Senate race heats up as James Talarico faces voter scrutiny Tess Smith and Sarah Gardner join 'Fox & Friends First' to discuss the Texas Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton. Texas voters split in the Senate… -
WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign event in Fort BendTexas Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico speaks at a "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" campaign event in Fort Bend as part of his statewide tour ahead of the midterm election. WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign… -
Bush family members back Democrat James Talarico in Texas Senate raceFrom left: Neil Bush, George W Bush, and George HW Bush Two members of the Bush family, the Republican political dynasty that counts Texas as its political launchpad, have backed Democrat James Talarico in the hotly fought race for a… -
WATCH LIVE: Dem Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign rally in San AntonioTexas Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico speaks at a "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" campaign rally in San Antonio. WATCH LIVE: Dem Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign rally in San Antonio Texas Democratic Senate nominee James… -
Poll shows Talarico leading Paxton in Texas Senate race, CBS News political analysts weigh inCBS News Executive Director of Elections and Surveys, Anthony Salvanto, and CBS News Senior White House and Political Correspondent Ed O'Keefe discuss their main takeaways from polls showing Democratic candidate James Talarico in the lead… -
James Talarico fires back at Elon Musk in Texas Senate race feudJames Talarico, the Democratic nominee seeking a Senate seat from Texas, fired back Wednesday night at Elon Musk for an X post in which the world's richest man hours earlier had said, "There is something deeply wrong with Talarico." "There… -
New Poll Shows James Talarico Could Flip Texas Senate Seat BlueOn "Forbes Newsroom," Emerson College Polling senior director Matt Taglia discussed the recent poll that shows Talarico slightly ahead of Paxton in a tight Senate race. New Poll Shows James Talarico Could Flip Texas Senate Seat Blue On… -
James Talarico rallies young voters in Austin who are critical to his Senate hopesThe Democrat held a Friday-night rally at the University of Texas at Austin, where multiple students told NBC News they had already voted and worry about the cost of living. AUSTIN, Texas — James Talarico is trying to become the first… -
How Christianity Became a Battleground in the Texas Senate RaceOct 25, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are making Christianity a defining issue in the home stretch of Texas’ U.S. Senate race, offering sharply different visions of what faith should mean in… -
Texas Senate race: Talarico campaign turns its fire on Elon MuskJames Talarico's campaign hit back at Elon Musk Thursday, calling the 2026 election cycle's top spender out for his cash infusion in the Texas Senate race amid an ongoing feud between the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Texas and the…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions