Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.68%median
14%34%
Median 28.68%Middle half 26.33% – 31.08%
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Idaho Senate election: Todd Achilles vote percent
The odds
39.75%median
28%48%
Median 39.75%Middle half 36.53% – 43.33%
How the odds have moved
Median: 38.81% on Oct 20, 39.75% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 30% | 97% | 93¢ | $1.04 | |||
| At least 32% | 95% | ▲ 1 | 91¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | |
| At least 34% | 89% | ▲ 1 | 84¢ | 94¢ | $1.06 | |
| At least 36% | 79% | ▲ 2 | 74¢ | 84¢ | $1.19 | 650 |
| At least 38% | 64% | ▲ 2 | 59¢ | 69¢ | $1.45 | 1.0K |
| At least 40% | 48% | ▲ 3 | 43¢ | 53¢ | $1.89 | 623 |
| At least 42% | 33% | ▲ 5 | 28¢ | 38¢ | $2.63 | 982 |
| At least 44% | 21% | ▲ 5 | 16¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | 471 |
| At least 46% | 9% | ▲ 1 | 5¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 410 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Idaho Senate, Todd Achilles
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Republican Jim Risch faces independent Todd Achilles in the race to represent Idaho in the U.S. SenateOct. 24—HAYDEN, Idaho — With Election Day approaching, Bonnita Zipperer offered her neighbors a rare opportunity: stop by her house to meet Todd Achilles, an independent candidate running to unseat U.S. Sen. Jim Risch, the three-term… -
What’s up with the Idaho Senate race?IDAHO - It’s a trend that’s taken on new life the election cycle, independent candidates running against establishment backed big names. Orion Donovan Smith, who's from Washington and writes for the The Spokesman-Review via the Report for… - Idaho senate candidates lay out prioritiesOct. 22—Idaho Sen. Jim Risch is seeking a fourth six-year term as issues surrounding affordability and persistent international conflict have risen to the fore alongside candidates looking to upend the state's decades-long streak of…
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Democrat Ron Taylor seeks another term in Idaho Senate District 26People attended the District 26 Democrats: Affordability Town Hall event Tuesday to hear from three candidates about their campaigns and solutions in Jerome. Candidate Kevin Marsh, running for Idaho House Seat A, left, listens during an… -
Senate candidates lay out priorities with affordability a shared concernIdaho’s three-term Republican U.S. Senator Jim Risch, center, is facing two Independent candidates for this year’s race in Todd Achilles, left, and Natalie Fleming, right. Also running is Libertarian candidate Matt Loesby (not pictured)… -
Idaho Republican Sen. Jim Risch Leads Fake Independent by Nearly 30 PointsIdaho Republican Sen. Jim Risch leads his nearest competitor in the state’s U.S. Senate race by 27 points, according to an internal poll shared with Breitbart News. The polling memo states, “With just over two weeks to go until the midterm… -
Valley County Election Preview: Brian Beckley vs. Jared Dawson for Idaho LegislatureTwo candidates are competing in the Nov. 3 General Election for one of two seats representing Valley County in the Idaho House of Representatives. Brian Beckley, a Republican who defeated incumbent Rep. Faye Thompson, R-McCall, in the May… -
Idaho 2026 Election Guide: Key Dates, Voting Information and ResultsIDAHO — The November 2026 election is approaching, and KMVT’s voter guide includes information voters need before heading to the polls. This guide incorporates reporting and election information from sister station Idaho News 6. On… -
2026 U.S. Senate control odds: Kalshi prediction markets show 65% probability for one party to win electionsYou can trade on the outcome of the 2026 US Senate races on prediction markets like Kalshi, with hundreds of political markets offered. That includes "Which Party will win the US Senate?" Kalshi currently lists the Democrats as the trading… -
Candidate forum set for todaySANDPOINT — If you're looking to get to know local and state candidates, Tuesday's candidate forum is just the spot to do just that. Bonner County media and the Selkirk Association of Realtors are teaming up to help area voters do just… -
Anti-establishment wave hits US midterms as outsiders ditch party labels to win over angry votersAs the United States prepares for its November 3 midterm elections, a growing number of candidates are trying to turn public frustration with Washington into an electoral advantage. Some are distancing themselves from their own parties… -
Idaho Senate candidates take the stageBryan Hyde, R-Jerome, answers a question during Pizza & Politics on Wednesday. Seated to the right are Shaila Tate, I-Carey, center, and Ron Taylor, D-Hailey. Candidates for Idaho’s District 26 Senate seat gathered in the Mountain Humane…
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All senate ›Alaska Governor election: Dave Bronson vote percent (1st Round)
15.83%median
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Alaska Governor election: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vote percent (1st Round)
44.51%median
36%56%
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Alaska Governor election: Treg Taylor vote percent (1st Round)
10.75%median
0%16%
Median 10.75%Middle half 8.41% – 13.61%
Montana Senate election: Alani Bankhead vote percent
13.88%median
7%40%
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Montana Senate election: Kurt Alme vote percent
45.75%median
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Median 45.75%Middle half 42.74% – 48.67%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions