Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.68%median
14%34%
Median 28.68%Middle half 26.33% – 31.08%
Install
Arkansas Senate election: Hallie Shoffner vote percent
The odds
43.19%median
30%52%
Median 43.19%Middle half 40.57% – 45.74%
How the odds have moved
Median: 42.33% on Oct 19, 43.19% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 32% | 98% | 95¢ | $1.03 | |||
| At least 34% | 98% | 95¢ | $1.03 | |||
| At least 36% | 97% | 93¢ | $1.04 | |||
| At least 38% | 92% | ▲ 1 | 88¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 5.00 |
| At least 40% | 80% | ▲ 1 | 76¢ | 84¢ | $1.19 | 318 |
| At least 42% | 63% | ▲ 1 | 58¢ | 67¢ | $1.49 | 619 |
| At least 44% | 42% | ▲ 1 | 37¢ | 46¢ | $2.17 | 99.00 |
| At least 46% | 23% | ▲ 1 | 18¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | 228 |
| At least 48% | 10% | ▲ 1 | 5¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | |
| At least 50% | 5% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Arkansas Senate, Hallie Shoffner
Search ›-
Hallie Shoffner Outraises Tom Cotton Nearly Threefold in Third Quarter FundraisingHome » Trending » Hallie Shoffner Outraises Tom Cotton Nearly Threefold in Third Quarter Fundraising In a significant turn of events in the competitive race for the U.S. Senate seat, Democratic candidate Hallie Shoffner has outperformed… -
In Arkansas, Democrats see an opening at the edge of the competitive midterms mapArkansas Democratic Senate nominee Hallie Shoffner speaks with voters at a campaign stop in Hope, Ark. Friday, Oct. 23, 2026. Stephen Fowler/NPR hide caption HOPE, Ark. — For Senate candidate Hallie Shoffner, the most important political… -
In race for Pulaski County-based Senate District 13, Republican Achor outraises Democrat Sweatman by 9-to-1Arkansas Senate candidate Rep. Brandon Achor, R-Maumelle, has raised more than nine times the amount of contributions compared to his opponent, Democratic candidate Allison Sweatman of North Little Rock, financial records show. In race for… -
Arkansas Dem Senate Candidate Says Requiring Proof of Citizenship To Vote 'Disenfranchises 22 Million Americans'Democrat Hallie Shoffner, running for Senate in Arkansas against incumbent Republican Tom Cotton, argued that requiring "proof of citizenship" to vote "disenfranchises 22 million Americans." She said the SAVE Act, the proposed federal… -
Meet the Democratic Senate Candidates Who Are Overperforming. And Underperforming.We can make a preliminary assessment of where individual candidates are overperforming and underperforming by looking at three data sets: the generic congressional ballot poll average, Senate race poll averages, and the Cook Political… -
Arkansas farmers pushed 'to the brink' as Senate hopefuls clash over tariffsArkansas farmers facing high input costs, low crop prices and narrowing markets are being pushed “to the brink,” prompting sharp disagreements among the candidates running for U.S. Senate over what should be done to help. Sen. Tom Cotton… -
Shoffner crushes Cotton in 3Q fundraisingFor the second time in as many reports, Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Hallie Shoffner has outraised her opponent, Sen. Tom Cotton. “Outraised” is a bit of an understatement, in fact. Unlike the slim margin she held in second-quarter… -
What Arkansans said on the first day of early voting for the midterm electionPolls across Arkansas opened for early voting Monday, with thousands of people expected to cast their ballots before Election Day next month. Voters will decide whether to grant Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton and the… -
OPINION: More ballot choices for Nov. 3 midterm electionsAfter last week's start on picking the best candidate for public offices on the Nov. 3 midterm election ballot, I have few regrets. I will, however, toss Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders a rose, of sorts, for at least appearing on the ARTV… -
What Arkansans said on the first day of early votingPublished 5:54 am Wednesday, October 21, 2026 By Ainsley Platt, Tess Vrbin and Angie Ramirez/Arkansas Advocate Polls across Arkansas opened for early voting Monday, with thousands of people expected to cast their ballots before Election… -
In Arkansas’ U.S. Senate race, Tom Cotton has most cash on hand, while Hallie Shoffner leads in fundraisingThe Arkansas Democrat-Gazette In Arkansas’ U.S. Senate race, Tom Cotton has most cash on hand, while Hallie Shoffner leads in fundraising -
Something is afoot in rural, red AmericaSince President Donald Trump’s rise, rural America has broadly shifted to the right, with ancestral Democrats abandoning the party and registering as Republicans. But in 2026, as Trump’s policies have taken a hacksaw to rural communities…
Related markets
All senate ›Alaska Governor election: Dave Bronson vote percent (1st Round)
15.86%median
8%28%
Median 15.86%Middle half 14.14% – 18%
Alaska Governor election: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vote percent (1st Round)
44.55%median
36%56%
Median 44.55%Middle half 41.5% – 47.09%
Alaska Governor election: Treg Taylor vote percent (1st Round)
10.75%median
0%16%
Median 10.75%Middle half 8.41% – 13.61%
Montana Senate election: Alani Bankhead vote percent
13.88%median
7%40%
Median 13.88%Middle half 10.49% – 17.65%
Montana Senate election: Kurt Alme vote percent
45.43%median
30%65%
Median 45.43%Middle half 41.97% – 48.29%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions