Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.68%median
14%34%
Median 28.68%Middle half 26.33% – 31.08%
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Alaska Senate election: Mary Peltola vote percent (1st Round)
The odds
47.97%median
40%56%
Median 47.97%Middle half 46.33% – 49.63%
How the odds have moved
Median: 47.87% on Oct 20, 47.97% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 42% | 97% | 95¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| At least 44% | 95% | ▼ 1 | 91¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 78.00 |
| At least 46% | 80% | ▼ 2 | 76¢ | 84¢ | $1.19 | 892 |
| At least 48% | 50% | ▼ 4 | 46¢ | 53¢ | $1.89 | 2.1K |
| At least 50% | 20% | ▼ 3 | 16¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 2.3K |
| At least 52% | 6% | ▼ 1 | 4¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | |
| At least 54% | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Alaska Senate, Mary Peltola
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Alaska Senate candidate Mary Peltola delays campaign stops after car crashPeltola and her family sustained minor injuries after a driver struck the car transporting group to campaign stop Mary Peltola, a Democrat who is running for Alaska’s lone US Senate seat, and her family suffered minor injuries in a car… -
Alaska Senate candidate Mary Peltola sustains "minor injuries" in car accident, reschedules campaign eventsOctober 25, 2026 / 1:32 PM EDT / CBS News Washington — Alaska Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola sustained "minor injuries" in a car accident, her campaign said Sunday. "Mary and her family sustained minor injuries but are in good… -
Alaska Dem Mary Peltola in car crash during final sprint for SenateAlaska Senate Democratic hopeful Mary Peltola suffered minor injuries in a car crash Saturday, temporarily sidelining her campaign, according to her team. Peltola, 53, was en route to the Alaska Federation of Natives Annual Banquet when… -
JUST IN: Democrat Alaska Senate Candidate Mary Peltola Injured in Car CrashDemocrat Alaska Senate candidate Mary Peltola was injured in a car crash, her campaign announced on Sunday. Peltola suffered non-life-threatening injuries that required medical attention after the vehicle that was transporting her was… -
Mary Peltola Campaign Speaks Out After Car Crash Disrupts Alaska TourOct 25, 2026 at 03:35 PM EDT Alaska Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola and members of her family suffered minor injuries in a car crash Saturday while traveling to a campaign event, prompting her campaign to postpone several stops… -
Trump Attacks Murkowski As Alaska Senate Fight Escalates: ‘Worst Senator’Oct 25, 2026 at 07:59 AM EDT Oct 25, 2026 at 08:09 AM EDT President Donald Trump has escalated his criticism of Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski as a high-stakes Alaska Senate race intensifies, branding the longtime senator one of the… -
Mary Peltola delays campaign events after sustaining ‘minor injuries’ in car crashFormer Rep. Mary Peltola is rescheduling several upcoming campaign events after she and her family sustained “minor” injuries in a car crash, her campaign announced on Sunday. “Mary and her family sustained minor injuries but are in good… -
Alaska Senate candidate Mary Peltola injured in car crash; postpones campaign events before midtermsAlaska Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola and her family suffered “minor injuries” in a car accident, her campaign said on Sunday. According to Politico, the crash took place on Saturday night. As per her campaign, Peltola and her… -
Democrats ask judge to dismiss Trump administration’s challenge to Alaska Senate raceAttorneys for Alaska’s Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola and Senate Democrats filed a motion Friday urging a federal judge to drop the Trump administration’s lawsuit that seeks to block the results of the upcoming election if… -
Blanche defends Trump-ordered lawsuit over Alaska Senate election certificationThe lawsuit, filed last week, cites what it argues is likely voter confusion over the name Daniel J. Sullivan, a retired teacher also on the ballot. The DOJ said confusion over the two Sullivans could help former Alaska Democratic Rep… -
Blanche defends DOJ lawsuit blocking Alaska Senate results if Republican losesPresident Donald Trump walks past Attorney General Todd Blanche after speaking at a roundtable event in the East Room of the White House, Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2026, in Washington. Alex Brandon/AP hide caption U.S. Attorney General Todd… -
Trump claims midterm momentum in tarmac gaggle, attacks Dem rivals in Michigan and Alaska Senate racesSpeaking before departing for Michigan, President Donald Trump argued his campaign blitz has "turned the whole thing around," for the GOP. Trump claims midterm momentum in tarmac gaggle, attacks Dem rivals in Michigan and Alaska Senate…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions