Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.68%median
14%34%
Median 28.68%Middle half 26.33% – 31.08%
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Alaska Senate election: Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. vote percent (1st Round)
The odds
3.31%median
0%9%
Median 3.31%Middle half 2.37% – 4.29%
How the odds have moved
Median: 3.46% on Oct 19, 3.31% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1% | 97% | 95¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| At least 2% | 85% | ▼ 5 | 84¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | 433 |
| At least 3% | 59% | 54¢ | 64¢ | $1.56 | 200 | |
| At least 4% | 30% | ▼ 1 | 25¢ | 34¢ | $2.94 | 205 |
| At least 5% | 14% | 9¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | ||
| At least 6% | 7% | 2¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | ||
| At least 7% | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | ||
| At least 8% | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Daniel J. Sullivan Jr, Alaska Senate
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Two Dans, four choices, one big headache for GOP in Alaska Senate raceRepublicans are sweating what a four-way ballot and ranked-choice tabulation with a same-name rival could mean for Sen. Dan Sullivan’s reelection bid. 10/20/2026 10:00 AM EDT ANCHORAGE — Alaska Republicans have railed for years against… -
A high-stakes Alaska senate raceFox News A high-stakes Alaska senate race The 'Journal Editorial Report' panel discusses how Alaska's economic future is on the line. -
Senators weigh in on the Alaska Senate 'toss up' raceSen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, and Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, discuss the Alaska Senate debate and the 'cue card' controversy. They also weigh in on the administration's actions regarding Russia sanctions. Senators weigh in on the Alaska Senate… -
Mary Peltola Is Pulling Ahead in the Final Stretch Against Dan SullivanOct 20, 2026 at 11:35 AM EDT Oct 20, 2026 at 03:23 PM EDT Alaska Democratic candidate Mary Peltola has pulled ahead of Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan in a string of recent polls of their critical Senate race, but the lead remains… - Sullivan walks the line with Trump in Alaska Senate raceSen. Dan Sullivan in an interview with POLITICO declined to put distance between himself and President Donald Trump. President Donald Trump shakes hands with Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) during a campaign rally in Wasilla, Alaska, on…
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Alaska Senate candidates clash over the Iran war, high prices and their times in officeMorning Rundown: Teen suspect dead after school shooting, Trump calls Ukraine's renewed oil strikes a ‘disgrace,’ and debunking an election conspiracy The two major candidates vying for an Alaska Senate seat squared off Thursday night over… - Takeaways from the Alaska Senate debate between Mary Peltola and Dan SullivanThe Washington Post The battleground Senate race is key to deciding which party controls the chamber. Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) and former congresswoman Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) clashed on their efficacy in Congress, high prices in the…
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Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola exchange jabs in Alaska Senate debateWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a… -
Alaska Senate race swimming in money and campaign adsAlaska's News Source Alaska Senate race swimming in money and campaign ads A look ahead at JD Vance's rally in Fairbanks JD Vance to rally in Fairbanks as the state faces two toss-up races -
US midterms 2026: Dan Sullivan’s ‘gotcha’ attempt backfires against Mary Peltola in fiery Alaska Senate debateWION Alaska Republican Senator Dan Sullivan's attempt to challenge former Democratic Representative Mary Peltola during their final debate ahead of November's midterm elections appeared to backfire on Thursday, after he suggested that his… -
Alaska Senate ‘Debate for the State’Alaska's News Source Alaska Senate ‘Debate for the State’ ‘It shaped my entire life’: Alaska woman reflects on surviving 1998 school shooting FULL DEBATE: Alaska Senate ‘Debate for the State’ Alaska Senate candidates Peltola and Sullivan… -
Election 2026 Alaska Senateyoursun.com There was a problem reporting this. Keep it Clean. Please avoid obscene, vulgar, lewd, racist or sexually-oriented language. You're on the list! â¹ï¸ You may want to whitelist emails from Top Headlines - The Daily Sun Start…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions