Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.68%median
14%34%
Median 28.68%Middle half 26.33% – 31.08%
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UT-02 House election: Blake Moore vote percent
The odds
56.15%median
48%70%
Median 56.15%Middle half 53.36% – 58.84%
How the odds have moved
Median: 56.12% on Oct 19, 56.15% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 50% | 94% | ▲ 1 | 89¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | |
| At least 52% | 85% | ▲ 1 | 80¢ | 89¢ | $1.12 | |
| At least 54% | 71% | ▲ 1 | 66¢ | 75¢ | $1.33 | |
| At least 56% | 52% | ▲ 1 | 47¢ | 56¢ | $1.79 | 10.00 |
| At least 58% | 32% | ▲ 1 | 27¢ | 36¢ | $2.78 | 10.00 |
| At least 60% | 16% | ▲ 1 | 12¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 5.00 |
| At least 62% | 7% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 5.00 |
| At least 64% | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 5.00 | |
| At least 66% | 3% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 5.00 | |
| At least 68% | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: UT- House, Blake Moore
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Utah congressional districts are warming fast. That may not move the political needleAs the campaign trail heats up in the final sprint to Election Day, Salt Lake’s new 1st Congressional District is heating up in another, more literal way. It’s warming faster than all but one other district nationwide. Average temperatures… -
Redistricting, Ousted Leaders, and a Competitive Salt Lake Seat: Utah’s Midterms Explained • Salt Lake MagazineHome » Redistricting, Ousted Leaders, and a Competitive Salt Lake Seat: Utah’s Midterms Explained We won’t hit on every name you’ll see on your November ballot, but we will point out some notable hits and misses in the primaries and direct… - Opinion: Utah’s hottest midterm races to watch — what you need to knowUtahns will soon be free of political commercials as Election Day approaches in less than two weeks. The much-anticipated results will determine whether a blue wave, major polling mistakes or third-party upsets occur. Here is a primer of…
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Livestream: Amendment B, new legislative race ratings and moreJoin our livestream, "What the Heck is Happening in Utah Politics?" Tuesday night at 7:30 pm Former Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon plans to run for Salt Lake City Mayor next year, adding his name to a field that is filling up even… -
Super PACs fuel record midterm spending, pouring nearly $3M into Utah network TV ads this electionSALT LAKE CITY, Utah — Super PACs, the committees that can raise unlimited funds, are largely powering the most expensive midterm election in history. In Utah, these groups aren't spending so heavily, but they have still already poured… -
LETTER: Blake Moore lauded for stands on women's issues, adoption, tax creditsBlake Moore has a proven record of defending life, supporting families and protecting fair competition for women and girls. For those reasons and more, he’s earned my vote for Congress in Utah’s 2nd District. Blake stands firmly for life… -
Blake Moore points to Hill Air Force Base as top northern Utah priorityNote: Utah Republican Blake Moore did not respond to interview requests in time for last week’s story on the 2nd Congressional District race. He has since reached out to share his priorities for the district. Republican Congressman Blake… - Long odds still favor incumbent Republican in hotly contested race in Utah's 2nd District – KVNU – News for Northern Utah and Southern IdahoLOGAN – Despite a less than stellar performance at the only face-to-face debate in the 2nd Congressional District race on Oct. 13, odds-makers are still predicting that incumbent U.S. Rep. Blake Moore (R-UT) will retain his seat in…
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Moore, Crosby spar over economy and growth at Congressional District 2 debateCandidates for Utah’s newly configured 2nd Congressional District, which covers northern Utah and includes Davis, Weber, and Cache Counties, squared off at Utah State University Tuesday night. Republican Rep. Blake Moore and Democratic… -
Ten Utah House seats shift toward Democrats in latest ratings updateRepublicans are still favored to keep their supermajority, but the path to breaking it just got shorter Every change in Utah Political Watch’s latest House race ratings points the same way: toward Democrats. Ten of the 75 districts shifted… -
WATCH LIVE: 2nd Congressional District Debate with Peter Crosby and Blake MooreUtah Public Radio On Tuesday at 6:00 p.m., the Utah Debate Commission is hosting the 2nd Congressional District Debate, featuring Democrat Peter Crosby and Republican Blake Moore. This will be the first general election since Utah adopted…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions