Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.42%median
14%34%
Median 28.42%Middle half 26.14% – 30.91%
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UT-01 House election: Riley Owen vote percent
The odds
31.05%median
24%44%
Median 31.05%Middle half 28.53% – 33.67%
How the odds have moved
Median: 30.95% on Oct 19, 31.05% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 26% | 93% | 88¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | ||
| At least 28% | 80% | 76¢ | 84¢ | $1.19 | 5.00 | |
| At least 30% | 61% | 57¢ | 65¢ | $1.54 | 5.00 | |
| At least 32% | 40% | 36¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | 5.00 | |
| At least 34% | 22% | 18¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | 5.00 | |
| At least 36% | 10% | 6¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 5.00 | |
| At least 38% | 5% | 2¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 5.00 | |
| At least 40% | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 5.00 | |
| At least 42% | 3% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 5.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: UT- House, Riley Owen
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Congressional candidates highlight issues facing voters in New York, Ohio, UtahCongressional candidates Michael LiPetri, Eric Conroy and Riley Owen join 'Fox & Friends Weekend' to discuss generational change in Congress as elections approach. Congressional candidates highlight issues facing voters in New York, Ohio… -
The real reasons US politicians are getting olderNot many US politicians have endured for as long as Hal Rogers, who will go into November's midterm elections seeking his 24th term in the House of Representatives. The 88-year-old Republican has represented Kentucky's 5th congressional… -
Utah’s U.S. House races: What to know before Nov. 3Every two years, all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives go before voters, including Utah’s four. This year’s midterm elections, on Nov. 3, arrive halfway through President Donald J. Trump’s term. Following a court-ordered… -
Utah congressional districts are warming fast. That may not move the political needleAs the campaign trail heats up in the final sprint to Election Day, Salt Lake’s new 1st Congressional District is heating up in another, more literal way. It’s warming faster than all but one other district nationwide. Average temperatures… -
Redistricting, Ousted Leaders, and a Competitive Salt Lake Seat: Utah’s Midterms Explained • Salt Lake MagazineHome » Redistricting, Ousted Leaders, and a Competitive Salt Lake Seat: Utah’s Midterms Explained We won’t hit on every name you’ll see on your November ballot, but we will point out some notable hits and misses in the primaries and direct… - A 28-year-old Republican outlines the GOP’s post-Trump future in a district Harris won by 24 pointsUtah’s 1st Congressional District, which favors Democrats by double digits, is an unlikely place to revamp the conservative movement. But that is exactly what Republican nominee Riley Owen set out to do on Wednesday. Surrounded by a…
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Utah Democrats have been out of power for 50 years. As the state changes, here’s how they think they can win.(Courtesy of Sophy Bishop) Sophy Bishop, her husband Tim Johnson and their son Artie mountain bike at Round Valley in 2025. The couple moved to Utah in 2021 to get closer to the outdoor recreation they enjoy, and Bishop thinks similar… -
What to know about the race for Utah's 1st Congressional DistrictSALT LAKE CITY — Utah's new 1st Congressional District has Democrats in the state hopeful about sending one of their own to Congress for the first time this decade. Democrats nominated a household name, Ben McAdams, a former U.S… -
Mike Lee asks Supreme Court to step into Eastman disbarment fightThe Utah Republican and Sen. Ted Cruz say California’s decision to disbar the Trump lawyer was political and punishes protected speech. Sen. Mike Lee is asking the Supreme Court to take up the disbarment of John Eastman, the lawyer behind… -
Utah Senate race ratings Update: 4 races shift toward DemocratsEvery rating change in Utah Political Watch’s latest update of the 2026 state Senate map moves toward Democrats. For the first time since we began publishing ratings, one race is a genuine toss-up. Four of the 15 seats on the November… -
Livestream: Utah 2nd Congressional District debateJoin our livestream of the 2nd Congressional District debate between Republican incumbent Blake Moore and Democrat Peter Crosby. Utah Political Watch's Bryan Schott will offer live commentary. The attorneys defending the man accused of… -
First Congressional District: Ben McAdams faces off against Riley Owen and three other challengersFive candidates are vying for Utah’s newly drawn 1st Congressional District, which covers most of Salt Lake County. McAdams is a former state senator, Salt Lake County mayor and served in the House until 2021. Since leaving Congress he has…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions