Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.68%median
14%34%
Median 28.68%Middle half 26.33% – 31.08%
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WI-06 House election: Brad Smith vote percent
The odds
43.35%median
32%52%
Median 43.35%Middle half 40.65% – 46.08%
How the odds have moved
Median: 42.55% on Oct 19, 43.35% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 34% | 97% | 95¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| At least 36% | 97% | 94¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| At least 38% | 92% | 87¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | ||
| At least 40% | 81% | 76¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | ||
| At least 42% | 64% | 59¢ | 68¢ | $1.47 | ||
| At least 44% | 44% | 39¢ | 48¢ | $2.08 | ||
| At least 46% | 26% | 21¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | ||
| At least 48% | 13% | 8¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | ||
| At least 50% | 6% | 2¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: WI- House, Brad Smith
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Microsoft President warns Trump’s H-1B, green card crackdown could drive tech talent out of USWashington [US], October 16 : Microsoft Vice Chair and President Brad Smith has warned that US President Donald Trump's crackdown on H-1B visas and green cards for highly skilled foreign workers could push top technology talent to other… -
Election choices and drug safety lead Oshkosh lettersHere are this week's letters to the editor of the Oshkosh Northwestern. See our letters policy below for details about how to share your views. Oct. 21 was the deadline to submit a letter to the editor regarding the Nov. 3 election. I… -
House Republicans Subpoena New Jersey Secretary of State for Information on the State Registering Over 6,000 Noncitizens to VoteWASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH), House Administration Committee Chairman Bryan Steil (R-WI), House Judiciary Subcommittee on Oversight Chairman Jeff Van Drew (R-NJ), and House Administration… -
Why Microsoft and others are on the sidelines of WA ‘millionaires tax’ fightPeople walk on Microsoft's campus on Sept. 14, 2026, in Redmond, Washington. (Nick Wagner/The Seattle Times/TNS) The last time Washingtonians voted on an income tax, the state's biggest corporations opened their wallets to kill the idea… -
Early voting locations, deadlines and what is on the ballot in SheboyganSHEBOYGAN – Sheboygan County voters will choose candidates for statewide, congressional, state legislative and county offices in the Nov. 3 general election. Some voters also will decide local referenda. The School District of Sheboygan… -
Will Trump’s Immigration Crackdown Drive Tech Talent Out of the US? What Did Microsoft President Brad Smith Say?During his interview with Politico’s Decoded, Brad Smith rejected the statements made by Vice President JD Vance regarding the abuse of the programme of H-1B visas by Microsoft in order to hire immigrants instead of paying more money to… -
Congress Is Fully Aware of Problems in the H-1B program, but Doesn’t Want To Offend Big TechIn today’s H-1B news, “Microsoft Vice Chair and President Brad Smith criticized the Trump administration's crackdown on employment-based immigration”: Smith also disputed claims that Microsoft compensates foreign workers less generously… -
Microsoft President Brad Smith warns Trump’s Green Card restrictions could hurt techMicrosoft President Brad Smith has warned that the Trump administration’s restrictions on green-card applications for skilled foreign workers could weaken the technological competitiveness that U.S. has long strived for. He said such rules… -
Trump's H1B Madness To Hit Back USA? Microsoft President Warns!United States has taken a very strong stand against the H1B Visa aspect and the repercussions are being felt already. There is a lot of discussion happening on this matter within the business circles, and it has now reached the top… -
Black Swan author Nassim Taleb calls US H-1B visa debate a ‘zero-sum fallacy’Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan, has criticised the US administration’s approach to H-1B visas. The philosopher and former options trader argued that skilled foreign workers create jobs rather than take them away from… -
'Could cripple US tech for more than a generation': Microsoft President Brad Smith on Trump's green-card curbsMicrosoft President and Vice Chair Brad Smith has warned that the Trump administration's move to restrict green-card access for skilled foreign workers could weaken the US technology sector and push talent towards other countries, Politico… -
Bonanza Park project criticized as trading ‘scenic mountain ridgelines for a dense urban wall’Opponents of a Bonanza Park development proposal involving the Park City municipal government continued to criticize the project on Wednesday, covering a range of issues during a Marsac Building meeting. The meeting on Wednesday did not…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions