WA-09 House election: Doug Basler vote percent

Kalshi Elections › House Closes Nov 3, 2027 · prices read 5 h ago

The odds

25.1%median

16%36%

Median 25.1%Middle half 22.58% – 27.82%

How the odds have moved

Median: 22.74% on Oct 24, 25.1% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays
At least 18%	97%	▲ 3	94¢	99¢	$1.01
At least 20%	94%	▲ 14	89¢	98¢	$1.02
At least 22%	81%	▲ 22	76¢	85¢	$1.18
At least 24%	62%	▲ 26	57¢	66¢	$1.52
At least 26%	41%	▲ 22	36¢	45¢	$2.22
At least 28%	24%	▲ 16	19¢	28¢	$3.57
At least 30%	12%	▲ 7	7¢	16¢	$6.25
At least 32%	6%	▲ 3	2¢	9¢	$11.11
At least 34%	4%	▲ 1	1¢	6¢	$16.67

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: WA- House, Doug Basler

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Adam Smith and Doug Basler clash again in WA 9th district raceFOX 13 Seattle · 7 days agoRepublican challenger Doug Basler is taking on incumbent Adam Smith in the battle for Washington's 9th Congressional District, the sixth time the candidates have faced each other in the race. SEATTLE - Representative Adam Smith and…
In tight WA House race, sparks fly over safety at challenger’s businessLongview Daily News · 6 days agoWASHINGTON, D.C. â John Braun often points to his credentials as the president of his family's manufacturing company in his campaign to unseat U.S. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez. Javascript is required to use this website. Washington…
In tight WA House race, sparks fly over safety at challenger’s business - The Seattle TimesThe Seattle Times · 7 days agoIn tight WA House race, sparks fly over safety at challenger’s business The Seattle Times
ELECTION 2026: Federal Way’s guide to the November electionFederal Way Mirror · 12 days agoPublished 10:00 am Wednesday, October 14, 2026 With election day just around the corner on Nov. 3, Washington voters will start receiving ballots in the mail starting Oct. 14. In Federal Way, voters will be asked to choose their top…
ELECTION 2026: A look at Auburn’s school bond, candidatesAuburn Reporter · 13 days agoPublished 1:20 pm Tuesday, October 13, 2026 The 2026 midterm general election is upon us; the voters’ pamphlets have been released and ballots will be mailed out this week, so here is a breakdown of the candidates for Auburn voters to…
ELECTION 2026: Renton’s guide to who’s on the ballotRenton Reporter · 13 days agoPublished 8:12 am Tuesday, October 13, 2026 In King County, election ballots are mailed out on Oct. 14 and drop boxes will be opened the following day. Ballots must be dropped off at a drop box or postmarked for mail by Election Day, Nov…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onElections Division, Office of the Secretary of State, Olympia, WA

Trading closesNov 3, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$0 (0 contracts)

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Doug Basler in the 2026 WA-09 House election is 18% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions