Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
27.83%median
14%34%
Median 27.83%Middle half 25.59% – 30.33%
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WA-09 House election: Adam Smith vote percent
The odds
74.95%median
64%84%
Median 74.95%Middle half 72.24% – 77.47%
How the odds have moved
Median: 73.46% on Oct 19, 74.95% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 66% | 97% | 94¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| At least 68% | 95% | 91¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| At least 70% | 90% | ▲ 2 | 85¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | |
| At least 72% | 77% | ▲ 3 | 72¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | |
| At least 74% | 60% | ▲ 6 | 55¢ | 65¢ | $1.54 | |
| At least 76% | 39% | ▲ 7 | 34¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | |
| At least 78% | 20% | ▲ 5 | 15¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | |
| At least 80% | 7% | ▲ 2 | 2¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | |
| At least 82% | 4% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: WA- House, Adam Smith
Search ›- America’s Best of Times, Worst of Times: Can Adam Smith Save the Future?The first line of Dicken’s Tale of Two Cities resonates even today: “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” Then as now there is an optimistic and pessimistic perspective on the present, and by extension, the future. Which…
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Trump says he will get Ukraine’s access to Starlink "straightened out" after Ukrainian officials say restrictions remainPresident Trump says he will get Ukraineâs access to Starlink "straightened out" after officials in the country said restrictions remain in place. "They're trying to subtly undermine Ukraine," says House Armed Services ranking member… - Dem Rep. Adam Smith: 'Trump and Musk Are Fascists'Dem Rep. Adam Smith: ‘Trump and Musk Are Fascists’ Breitbart News On Tuesday’s broadcast of CNN’s “The Arena,” Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA) said President Donald Trump and Elon Musk are “fascists.” Smith said, “It certainly seems like, you know…
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Rep. Adam Smith: Trump Should Face ImpeachmentTrump promised to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours over 53 times. Well, it’s almost two years later, and Trump has failed to negotiate a peace deal with Russia. The longer the war goes on, the friendlier Trump gets with Putin, and… -
Adam Smith: Trump Should Be Impeached for Disobeying Court OrdersBreitbart News On Tuesday’s broadcast of CNN’s “The Arena,” Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA) said President Donald Trump should be impeached because he is “disobeying” court orders. Host Kasie Hunt said, “Do you think Democrats should impeach the… -
In tight WA House race, sparks fly over safety at challenger’s businessWASHINGTON, D.C. â John Braun often points to his credentials as the president of his family's manufacturing company in his campaign to unseat U.S. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez. Javascript is required to use this website. Washington… -
Headed to California to Fight Trump’s Election DesperationWhat is causing this freakout in the courts? Perhaps it’s early-voting numbers. They Want Us to Fear the Ballot. We Can’t Give Them That Victory. Diamond Brown and Jonathan Barry-Blocker wrote on the Trump regime’s desperate lengths to… -
Adam Smith and Doug Basler clash again in WA 9th district raceRepublican challenger Doug Basler is taking on incumbent Adam Smith in the battle for Washington's 9th Congressional District, the sixth time the candidates have faced each other in the race. SEATTLE - Representative Adam Smith and… - In tight WA House race, sparks fly over safety at challenger’s business - The Seattle TimesIn tight WA House race, sparks fly over safety at challenger’s business The Seattle Times
- Rep. Adam Smith joins list of lawmakers who received letter with ‘suspicious substance’ – KVNU – News for Northern Utah and Southern IdahoWashington State Democratic Congressman Adam Smith received a “suspicious letter containing a powdery substance” on Monday, according to a statement from the congressman’s office, making the lawmaker the latest in a growing list of…
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Trump-backed $1.15 trillion defense bill and Dec. 11 funding deadline await Congress after the electionBuffalo, New York · Western New York Buffalo · Western New York The House passed a $1.15 trillion NDAA matching President Trump’s request, but the Senate bill stalled 50-46. With a stopgap expiring Dec. 11 and a $60 billion defense… -
WA deploys National Guard at ballot boxes for election securityElection security is top of mind, especially for Clark County Auditor Greg Kimsey, after someone lit an explosive inside a ballot box in Vancouver, Washington back in 2024. EVERETT, Wash. - Washington National Guard troops will be at…
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All house ›Alaska Governor election: Dave Bronson vote percent (1st Round)
15.78%median
8%28%
Median 15.78%Middle half 13.94% – 17.8%
Alaska Governor election: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vote percent (1st Round)
45.85%median
36%56%
Median 45.85%Middle half 43.17% – 48.69%
Alaska Governor election: Treg Taylor vote percent (1st Round)
10.45%median
0%16%
Median 10.45%Middle half 8.22% – 13.31%
Montana Senate election: Alani Bankhead vote percent
13.94%median
7%40%
Median 13.94%Middle half 10.88% – 17.63%
Montana Senate election: Kurt Alme vote percent
45.5%median
30%65%
Median 45.5%Middle half 42.33% – 48.36%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions