VA-11 House election: Arthur Purves vote percent

Kalshi Elections › House Closes Nov 3, 2027 · prices read 9 h ago

The odds

27.5%median

18%38%

Median 27.5%Middle half 25.06% – 30.07%

How the odds have moved

Median: 27.18% on Oct 19, 27.5% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays
At least 20%	97%		94¢	99¢	$1.01
At least 22%	95%	▲ 1	91¢	99¢	$1.01
At least 24%	85%	▲ 1	80¢	89¢	$1.12
At least 26%	67%	▲ 1	62¢	71¢	$1.41
At least 28%	45%	▲ 1	40¢	49¢	$2.04
At least 30%	26%	▲ 1	21¢	30¢	$3.33
At least 32%	12%	▲ 1	7¢	16¢	$6.25
At least 34%	6%	▲ 1	2¢	9¢	$11.11
At least 36%	4%		1¢	6¢	$16.67

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: VA- House, Arthur Purves

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This is what Daily Kos is forDaily Kos · 6 days agoYes, this – electing more and better Democrats! We have a chance to help a Democrat right now. Many here know of her, much has been written about her. I’ve linked to just some of the pieces by several authors. The D Party blocked Jasmine…
Arthur Purves and His Run for Congress in VA-11News Talk 105.9 WMAL-FM · 10 days agoBy Jeffrey A. Leach Recently I sat down with Arthur Purves of Vienna, who is running for Congress in Virginia’s 11th Congressional District, to ask him what voters should know about him and what sets him apart. That the IRGC slaughtered…
W. Va. House of Del. incumbent Mallow to defend seat against LongstrethWV News · 11 days agoThe 2026 General Election will take place on Nov. 3. Early voting begins Oct. 21. Editor’s Note: The following is a part of a series of profiles on candidates running in the General Election being held Nov. 3. FAIRMONT, W.Va. — Republican…
Voter Guide For Reston: What's On The Ballot, Early Voting & MoreReston · 12 days agoRESTON, VA — On Nov. 3, Reston voters will decide who will represent them on Capitol Hill, whether to approve two local bonds, and whether to amend the Virginia Constitution. In the Aug. 4 Republican Primary, Bert Mizusawa was declared the…
Voter Guide For Fairfax County: What's On The Ballot, Early Voting & MoreVienna · 12 days agoFAIRFAX COUNTY, VA — In the Nov. 3 general election, Fairfax County voters will decide who will represent them on Capitol Hill, whether to approve two local bonds, and whether to amend the Virginia Constitution. The statewide deadline to…
Voter Guide For Fairfax City: What's On The Ballot, Early Voting & MoreFairfax City · 12 days agoFAIRFAX CITY, VA — On Nov. 3, voters in the City of Fairfax will choose who will represent them on Capitol Hill and at City Hall. City of Fairfax residents will vote for candidates running in the mayoral, city council and school board…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onState Board of Elections, Richmond, VA

Trading closesNov 3, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$0 (0 contracts)

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Arthur Purves in the 2026 VA-11 House election is 20% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions