Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.68%median
14%34%
Median 28.68%Middle half 26.33% – 31.08%
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VA-04 House election: Robert Murray vote percent
The odds
28.44%median
14%40%
Median 28.44%Middle half 26.18% – 30.88%
How the odds have moved
Median: 29.03% on Oct 20, 28.44% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 16% | 97% | 95¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| At least 18% | 97% | 95¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| At least 20% | 97% | 95¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| At least 22% | 97% | 94¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 301 | |
| At least 24% | 92% | 87¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 2.7K | |
| At least 26% | 77% | 72¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | ||
| At least 28% | 55% | 50¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | ||
| At least 30% | 33% | ▲ 1 | 28¢ | 37¢ | $2.70 | |
| At least 32% | 16% | ▲ 1 | 11¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | |
| At least 34% | 7% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 800 |
| At least 36% | 4% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 200 | |
| At least 38% | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: VA- House, Robert Murray
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Key Election Day deadlines to remember for Virginia, PetersburgWith Election Day approaching on Nov. 3, Virginia residents have several voting deadlines to consider, including the early voting period, registration and absentee ballots. While many eyes are on the congressional races between Democratic… -
This is what Daily Kos is forYes, this – electing more and better Democrats! We have a chance to help a Democrat right now. Many here know of her, much has been written about her. I’ve linked to just some of the pieces by several authors. The D Party blocked Jasmine… -
W. Va. House of Del. incumbent Mallow to defend seat against LongstrethThe 2026 General Election will take place on Nov. 3. Early voting begins Oct. 21. Editor’s Note: The following is a part of a series of profiles on candidates running in the General Election being held Nov. 3. FAIRMONT, W.Va. — Republican… -
Cranston Committee Advances Ritz's School Worker Background Check OrdinanceA Cranston council committee voted 6-0 to advance a 20-year employment look-back for school workers. A resident questioned the city's authority, and the administration suggested waiting. If adopted by the full City Council, the ordinance…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions