Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.42%median
14%34%
Median 28.42%Middle half 26.14% – 30.91%
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TX-26 House election: Brandon Gill vote percent
The odds
58.38%median
50%70%
Median 58.38%Middle half 55.92% – 60.94%
How the odds have moved
Median: 58.48% on Oct 20, 58.38% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 52% | 95% | ▲ 1 | 90¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | |
| At least 54% | 87% | ▲ 4 | 82¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | 600 |
| At least 56% | 75% | ▲ 6 | 70¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | 1.7K |
| At least 58% | 54% | ▲ 5 | 49¢ | 59¢ | $1.69 | |
| At least 60% | 33% | ▲ 4 | 28¢ | 38¢ | $2.63 | |
| At least 62% | 16% | ▲ 1 | 11¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | |
| At least 64% | 7% | 2¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | ||
| At least 66% | 3% | 6¢ | $16.67 | |||
| At least 68% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: TX- House, Brandon Gill
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Some Freedom Caucus Members Want Brandon Gill OutJust dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192 “A small group of Rep. Brandon Gill’s fellow House Freedom Caucus members are privately questioning whether he still belongs in the hardline group, Axios has learned,” Axios reports. “The 32-year-old… -
Is Brandon Gill the future of MAGA in Texas?The young-ish right-wing Republican has rapidly gone from freshman lawmaker to one of Trump’s top attack dogs. By Eden Shamy, Texas ObserverOctober 23, 2026 10:15 amGovernment & Politics, Texas Observer An inflatable eagle swayed outside… -
Democrat Steven Shook, Libertarian Phil Gray face ‘MAGA warrior’ Brandon Gill for House District 26Three candidates are running for the U.S. House of Representatives District 26 seat in the Nov. 3 election. District 26 covers the southern parts of Denton County, including Flower Mound, Lewisville, Corinth, Carrollton, Little Elm and The… -
'This is the kind of stuff Texas voters see in Talarico': Rep. Brandon GillRep. Brandon Gill. Rep. Brandon Gill discusses Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico on 'The Ingraham Angle.' ... 'This is the kind of stuff Texas voters see in Talarico': Rep. Brandon Gill Rep. Brandon Gill discusses Democratic… -
How Talarico portrays himself and what he believes are two very different things: Rep Brandon GillFox News How Talarico portrays himself and what he believes are two very different things: Rep Brandon Gill Rep. Brandon Gill, R-Texas, discusses Texas Democratic U.S. Senate nominee James Talarico’s campaign and argues his proposed… - Renegade Panics,Trump Is Forcing The Manchurian Candidate Into The Insurrection Trap,Soon – Ep. 4020Eleven of the 12 states leading job growth since the pandemic are Republican. Eight of the 10 slowest are blue. — Stephen Moore (@StephenMoore) October 23, 2026 You know what's more expensive than $4 a gallon gas? Paying student loans I…
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Today on Texas Standard: Gina Hinojosa makes her case for Texas governorBy Texas StandardOctober 23, 2026 9:07 amTexas Standard Original, Whole Shows Here’s what’s coming up on Texas Standard for Friday, Oct. 23, 2026. Listen on your Texas public radio station, or ask your smart speaker to play Texas Standard… -
HOCHUL UNDER FIRE: Conservatives Blast NY Governor For Wearing Hijab At Islamic CenterNew York Gov. Kathy Hochul is facing criticism from conservatives after wearing a hijab during a visit to the Islamic Cultural Center of New York in Queens, where she addressed worshippers during Friday prayers. Hochul, dressed in a… -
Trump’s rising star facing MAGA mutiny as ‘livid’ House hardliners turn on him: reportUS Representative Brandon Gill (R-TX) speaks at the Texas Youth Summit ahead of midterm elections in The Woodlands, Texas, US, October 9, 2026. REUTERS/Joel Angel Juarez REFILE - ADDING PARTY-STATE IDENTIFIER A fast-rising favorite of… -
Top Republicans declare war on Trump's favorite new congressmanPresident Donald Trump is known for demanding unquestioning loyalty from his closest associates, and in the case of one ostensibly conservative lawmaker, that loyalty is alienating him from an unexpected group — other conservatives. Rep… -
Freedom Caucus Heat Builds Over Gill's Fast RiseSome of Rep. Brandon Gill’s fellow House Freedom Caucus members are privately debating whether the Texas Republican still fits inside the hardline group he once helped fortify. Several Freedom Caucus members told Axios that Gill’s… - How anti-trans backlash to James Talarico spread like wildfireThis story was reported in partnership with Uncloseted Media, an LGBTQ-focused investigative news outlet. Texas' Senate race has become one of the most-watched elections of the year. MAGA Republican nominee Ken Paxton pulled off a rare…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions