Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
27.83%median
14%34%
Median 27.83%Middle half 25.59% – 30.33%
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TX-20 House election: Joaquin Castro vote percent
The odds
70.19%median
60%80%
Median 70.19%Middle half 67.6% – 72.71%
How the odds have moved
Median: 70.5% on Oct 20, 70.19% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 62% | 97% | 94¢ | $1.03 | |||
| At least 64% | 96% | 91¢ | $1.05 | |||
| At least 66% | 87% | ▼ 1 | 82¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | 1.0K |
| At least 68% | 72% | ▼ 1 | 67¢ | 77¢ | $1.30 | 1.3K |
| At least 70% | 52% | ▼ 1 | 47¢ | 57¢ | $1.75 | 429 |
| At least 72% | 31% | ▼ 1 | 26¢ | 36¢ | $2.78 | |
| At least 74% | 14% | ▼ 1 | 9¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | |
| At least 76% | 5% | 9¢ | $11.11 | |||
| At least 78% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: TX- House, Joaquin Castro
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Rep. Joaquin Castro says Trump administration "covered up" death of migrant girlMay 22, 2019 / 10:38 PM EDT / CBS News "It's outrageous that another child has died in government custody and that the Trump administration didn't tell anybody," Castro told CBS News Wednesday night, referring to an exclusive report by CBS… -
Mayor Gina Ortiz Jones calls on feds to rethink immigration approach related to military familiesMayor Gina Ortiz Jones this week asked federal authorities to reconsider White House immigration enforcement practices that have led to U.S. military personnel’s family members being detained and targeted for deportation. In an Oct. 21… -
ANCA-WR Announces 2026 General Election EndorsementsLOS ANGELES, CA – The Armenian National Committee of America, Western Region (ANC U.S. House of Representatives: Nevada Dina Titus, NV-1 (2026 Report Card: A+)Susie Lee, NV-3 (2026 Report Card: A-)Steven Horsford, NV-4 (2026 Report Card… -
A day after his detention, St. Louis native Brad Lander makes a new pledgeJustin Tesser named next head of Saul Mirowitz Jewish Community School I went to Sababa looking for a story. What I found was something else. A rabbi was fired after just one month. Was it because of her fiancé? Who was the first Jew in… -
Lander says he will co-sponsor anti-settlement bill in CongressBrad Lander, Democratic nominee for New York’s 12th Congressional District, said on Wednesday that once he is sworn in as a member of Congress, he will co-sponsor legislation that would ban the United States from importing items produced… -
Lander endorses settlement sanctions bill while on West Bank tripAfter his brush with IDF, Brad Lander announced he would join the Stop the Settlements Act NYC congressional nominee Brad Lander speaks during a press conference outside of the Jacob K. Javits Federal Building on June 24, 2026 in New York… -
🗳️ Get the most important election updates every weekThis story is part of the San Antonio Report’s 2026 Voter Guide. You can view all of the candidates on the Nov. 3 ballot here. Not all of them were eager to help. Several declined to sit down with us or provide references about their work… -
Jacob Soboroff (@jacobsoboroff)Substack Make money doing the work you believe in Rep. Joaquin Castro: Trump is using taxpayer dollars to enrich his family and friends as Americans struggle with soaring gas prices and the cost of basic goods. “Their money [is] literally… - Press Release: Joaquin Castro Nominates 25 Latino Recordings for Library of Congress PreservationCastro announced 25 Latino music and broadcast nominations for Library of Congress preservation. Castro announces preservation nominations: Rep. Joaquin Castro said he has submitted 25 Latino songs, albums and broadcasts for possible…
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Palestinian villagers and Washington Post Journalist attacked in the West BankU.S. Congressman Joaquin Castro U.S. Congressman Joaquin Castro (.gov) Palestinian villagers and Washington Post Journalist attacked in the West Bank Today’s violent attack is an example of why Congress should take up my bill, the Stop the… -
Meet the Republican mounting a longshot bid to topple Rep. Joaquin CastroEdgardo Báez’s challenge to Democratic Rep. Joaquin Castro in Congressional District 20 got its start more than 1,000 miles away. It was on a family cruise to Cuba that the seed was first planted. “We were in Cuba, and it was the most… -
School vouchers draw criticism at San Antonio District 1 town hallSAN ANTONIO — Texas’ new school voucher program and the future of public education took center stage at a District 1 town hall Thursday evening. Councilmember Sukh Kaur hosted the event at the San Pedro Playhouse with U.S. Rep. Joaquin…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions