Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.65%median
14%34%
Median 28.65%Middle half 26.29% – 31.08%
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TX-20 House election: Edgardo Baez vote percent
The odds
28.15%median
20%40%
Median 28.15%Middle half 25.75% – 30.75%
How the odds have moved
Median: 29.91% on Oct 20, 28.15% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 22% | 96% | 92¢ | $1.04 | |||
| At least 24% | 89% | 84¢ | 94¢ | $1.06 | ||
| At least 26% | 73% | 68¢ | 78¢ | $1.28 | ||
| At least 28% | 52% | 47¢ | 56¢ | $1.79 | 5.00 | |
| At least 30% | 31% | ▲ 1 | 27¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 5.00 |
| At least 32% | 15% | ▲ 1 | 11¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 5.00 |
| At least 34% | 6% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 5.00 |
| At least 36% | 4% | 7¢ | $14.29 | 5.00 | ||
| At least 38% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: TX- House, Edgardo Baez
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🗳️ Get the most important election updates every weekThis story is part of the San Antonio Report’s 2026 Voter Guide. You can view all of the candidates on the Nov. 3 ballot here. Not all of them were eager to help. Several declined to sit down with us or provide references about their work… -
A remapped district all but securing his seat, Rep. Castro focuses on immigration reform and flipping the HouseWhen redistricting took a primarily West Side district to one that encompasses nearly all of downtown San Antonio, the 20th Congressional District turned bluer than ever, effectively curbing any Republican challenger’s bid for the seat… -
Meet the Republican mounting a longshot bid to topple Rep. Joaquin CastroEdgardo Báez’s challenge to Democratic Rep. Joaquin Castro in Congressional District 20 got its start more than 1,000 miles away. It was on a family cruise to Cuba that the seed was first planted. “We were in Cuba, and it was the most…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions