Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.68%median
14%34%
Median 28.68%Middle half 26.33% – 31.08%
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TX-10 House election: Caitlin Rourk vote percent
The odds
43.23%median
32%52%
Median 43.23%Middle half 39% – 46.93%
How the odds have moved
Median: 44% on Oct 19, 43.23% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 34% | 93% | 88¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | ||
| At least 36% | 88% | 83¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | ||
| At least 38% | 80% | 75¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | ||
| At least 40% | 70% | 65¢ | 75¢ | $1.33 | ||
| At least 42% | 58% | 53¢ | 63¢ | $1.59 | ||
| At least 44% | 45% | 40¢ | 50¢ | $2.00 | 48.00 | |
| At least 46% | 32% | ▲ 1 | 27¢ | 36¢ | $2.78 | |
| At least 48% | 18% | ▲ 1 | 13¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | |
| At least 50% | 7% | ▲ 1 | 4¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 1.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: TX- House, Caitlin Rourk
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New FEC filings reveal campaign cash gap in Texas’s 10th Congressional District raceCOLLEGE STATION, Texas (KBTX) - With early voting underway and Election Day just over a week away, Republican Chris Gober brought national firepower to Brazos Valley Thursday, and new campaign finance filings show how much he’s personally… -
Campaigning ramps up in the Brazos ValleyBRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - Texas House Speaker Dustin Burrows campaigned in Bryan Friday for Representative Paul Dyson, as campaign activity increases across the state both in person and in political advertising. Burrows was not the only… -
Fed up with data centers and Big Tech, rural Republican crossover could decide Democrats’ fate in TexasBy Eleanor Klibanoff, Graphics By Apurva Mahajan NAVASOTA — Joie Miller moved to rural Grimes County to raise her daughter hunting, fishing and spending time with her grandparents on their 100-acre ranch. Then Elon Musk announced he was… -
Why Caitlin Rourk believes appealing to ‘the radical middle’ can win Texas’ District 10Editor’s note: In the spring, The Battalion profiled Chris Gober, the Republican nominee for Texas’ 10th Congressional District. That profile can be found here. Caitlin Rourk is running for Congress in a district that hasn’t elected a… -
Early voting kicks off MondayEarly voting dates and times •Oct. 19-23, 8 a.m.-5 p.m. •Oct. 24, 7 a.m.-7 p.m. •Oct. 25, 1 p.m.-7 p.m. •Oct. 26-30, 7 a.m.-7 p.m. Early voting location is the San Jacinto County Election Administration Building, 51 E. Pine Ave., in… - Early voting for latest election starts MondayEarly voting dates and times •Oct. 19-23: 8 a.m.-5 p.m. •Oct. 24: 7 a.m.-7 p.m. •Oct. 25: 9 a.m.-3 p.m. •Oct. 26-30: 7 a.m.-7 p.m. •Groveton Volunteer Fire Department, 249 W. Front St., Groveton •Trinity City Hall, 101 W. Madison, Trinity…
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Statesman Editorial Board Texas General Election RecommendationsCentral Texas voters face important choices this November, from the U.S. Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton to the governor’s race between Greg Abbott and Gina Hinojosa. The ballot also includes Austin City Council races in…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions