TN-06 House election: Mike Croley vote percent

Kalshi Elections › House Closes Nov 3, 2027 · prices read 7 h ago

The odds

41.55%median

30%50%

Median 41.55%Middle half 38.88% – 44.23%

How the odds have moved

Median: 40.67% on Oct 19, 41.55% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays
At least 32%	98%	95¢		$1.03
At least 34%	97%	93¢		$1.04
At least 36%	94%	89¢	98¢	$1.02
At least 38%	83%	78¢	87¢	$1.15
At least 40%	66%	61¢	70¢	$1.43
At least 42%	46%	41¢	50¢	$2.00
At least 44%	27%	22¢	31¢	$3.23
At least 46%	14%	9¢	18¢	$5.56
At least 48%	5%		9¢	$11.11

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: TN- House, Mike Croley

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Tennessee Congressional Candidate Mike Croley Talks Education PolicyThe Education Report · 8 days agoMike Croley, the Democratic candidate for Congress in Tennessee’s 6th congressional district, took time to answer some questions about his approach to education policy. 1. What can be done at the federal level to support and invest in…
Tennessee Voters are Increasingly Wary of the Technology That’s Watching ThemNashville Banner · 7 days agoThis fall, we sent out a community survey to ask what issues mattered most to you in this election cycle. This is the latest in our community-focused series. When the Banner asked readers what issues were on their minds ahead of elections…
Croley Calls for More Federal Support for SchoolsTennessee Education Report · 8 days ago6th District congressional candidate Mike Croley said in an interview about education issues that he supports increasing federal spending on education: Every child deserves a quality public education, regardless of how much money their…
Nashville voter turnout 15 times higher than last midterm so farWPLN News · 12 days agoThe number of Nashvillians casting a ballot on the first day of early voting has risen nearly 1400% compared to the last midterm election in 2022. However, the 2022 midterm didn’t have an open seat for governor on the ballot. With Gov…
Mark Proctor, Bill Hancock vie for TN House District 59Nashville Banner · 14 days agoA competitive state house race in Nashville may serve as a litmus test on scope rather than a simple measure of right vs. left. Tennessee House District 59, which spans much of southern Davidson County from Belle Meade to Cane Ridge, is up…
ELECTIONS 2026WPLN News · 14 days agoTennessee’s congressional races got a shake-up in May when state lawmakers heeded a call from President Donald Trump to redistrict ahead of the midterm elections. Some incumbents have opted not to run again or lost in the primaries…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onElections Division, Office of the Secretary of State, Nashville, TN

Trading closesNov 3, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$0 (0 contracts)

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Mike Croley in the 2026 TN-06 House election is 32% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions