Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.65%median
14%34%
Median 28.65%Middle half 26.29% – 31.08%
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SD-AL House election: Marty Jackley vote percent
The odds
61.19%median
50%70%
Median 61.19%Middle half 58.53% – 63.83%
How the odds have moved
Median: 61.25% on Oct 19, 61.19% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 52% | 96% | 94¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | ||
| At least 54% | 96% | ▲ 1 | 93¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | |
| At least 56% | 92% | ▲ 1 | 87¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | |
| At least 58% | 80% | ▲ 1 | 75¢ | 84¢ | $1.19 | 217 |
| At least 60% | 63% | ▲ 1 | 58¢ | 67¢ | $1.49 | 35.00 |
| At least 62% | 42% | ▲ 1 | 37¢ | 46¢ | $2.17 | 200 |
| At least 64% | 24% | ▲ 1 | 19¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | 210 |
| At least 66% | 11% | ▲ 1 | 6¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 200 |
| At least 68% | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | 197 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: SD-AL House, Marty Jackley
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States join South Dakota in Mayday Health legal battleSIOUX FALLS, S.D. (Dakota News Now) - Eighteen states are stepping in to back South Dakota in its legal fight to restrict mailed abortion pills. South Dakota Attorney General Marty Jackley said the legal battle is as much about states’… -
Jackley: Gun suppressors ‘important’ in South DakotaSouth Dakota’s top prosecutor says firearm suppressors are more than just a Second Amendment issue—they are a major economic driver in his state. SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (Dakota News Now) - South Dakota’s top prosecutor says firearm suppressors… -
18 States Back South Dakota AG’s Appeal Over Abortion Pill Distribution LawAttorney General Marty Jackley PIERRE, S.D. (KELO.com) – South Dakota Attorney General Marty Jackley says 18 states are backing his appeal regarding an abortion pill distribution law. Jackley made the announcement Thursday, saying the… -
Rhoden, Rounds, and Jackley Launch GOTV Bus TourPierre, SD – Today, the Rhoden for Governor, Mike Rounds for Senate, and Marty Jackley for Congress campaigns announced a joint GOTV Bus Tour across South Dakota to help get out the vote for the general election. The tour will take place… -
18 states support South Dakota in abortion pill law appealRAPID CITY, S.D. (KOTA) - South Dakota’s fight to enforce a law restricting abortion pill distribution is gaining support from 18 other states as the case moves through the federal appeals process. Attorney General Marty Jackley announced… -
Attorney General Jackley Encourages South Dakotans to Participate In Saturday’s National Drug Take Back DayPIERRE, S.D. - South Dakota Attorney General Marty Jackley encourages South Dakotans to safely dispose of their unneeded prescription medication durin... PIERRE, S.D. – South Dakota Attorney General Marty Jackley encourages South Dakotans… -
Poll: Jackley leads Gronli 60-32% for U.S. HouseRepublican Attorney General Marty Jackley leads Democrat Nikki Gronli 60% to 32%, according to the latest South Dakota Poll sponsored by News Watch and the Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota. The Oct. 12-14… -
Poll: Jackley Has Big Lead In South Dakota House RaceRepublican Attorney General Marty Jackley leads Democrat Nikki Gronli 60% to 32%, according to the latest South Dakota Poll sponsored by News Watch and the Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota. The Oct. 12-14… -
What happens when good AI goes bad?KOTA Territory News What happens when good AI goes bad? Land Surveyors Gather at Mount Rushmore to Mark America’s 250th and Roll Out Modernized Mapping System As Summer Crowds Fade, Keystone Businesses Navigate the Annual Shift to Winter… -
Political Pulse: Don Haggar runs for Public Utilities Commission as a RepublicanKOTA Territory News Political Pulse: Don Haggar runs for Public Utilities Commission as a Republican Political Pulse: Attorney General Marty Jackley hopes to bring law and ag background to Congress Women in agriculture gather in Rapid City… -
Jackley Raises Bengs-Level Cash, Far More Than GronliHere’s quirky little data point: in the third quarter, independent Brian Bengs raised more money ($892K) for his U.S. Senate campaign than his opponent Mike Rounds ($433K) and both people running for U.S. House, Republican Marty Jackley…
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All house ›Alaska Governor election: Dave Bronson vote percent (1st Round)
15.83%median
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Alaska Governor election: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vote percent (1st Round)
44.48%median
36%56%
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Alaska Governor election: Treg Taylor vote percent (1st Round)
10.72%median
0%16%
Median 10.72%Middle half 8.36% – 13.61%
Montana Senate election: Alani Bankhead vote percent
13.88%median
7%40%
Median 13.88%Middle half 10.49% – 17.65%
Montana Senate election: Kurt Alme vote percent
45.43%median
30%65%
Median 45.43%Middle half 41.92% – 48.29%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions