Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.42%median
14%34%
Median 28.42%Middle half 26.14% – 30.91%
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OH-15 House election: Mike Carey vote percent
The odds
50.5%median
44%64%
Median 50.5%Middle half 47.86% – 53.25%
How the odds have moved
Median: 51.87% on Oct 19, 50.5% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 46% | 89% | 84¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | ||
| At least 48% | 74% | 70¢ | 78¢ | $1.28 | 5.00 | |
| At least 50% | 55% | 51¢ | 59¢ | $1.69 | 5.00 | |
| At least 52% | 35% | 31¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | 5.00 | |
| At least 54% | 19% | 15¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 5.00 | |
| At least 56% | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | ||
| At least 58% | 4% | 7¢ | $14.29 | |||
| At least 60% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| At least 62% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: OH- House, Mike Carey
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Mike Johnson asks Trump for more midterm money as Republicans seek to avert disaster in House racesIn the final sprint to the midterms, Speaker Mike Johnson went to President Donald Trump with a crucial ask, according to a person familiar with the exchange. Johnson’s message: Could Trump spare more cash to help House Republicans in this… -
House Republicans Subpoena New Jersey Secretary of State for Information on the State Registering Over 6,000 Noncitizens to VoteWASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH), House Administration Committee Chairman Bryan Steil (R-WI), House Judiciary Subcommittee on Oversight Chairman Jeff Van Drew (R-NJ), and House Administration… - Stand Up for Ohio Spends $1.2 Million Supporting DemocratsThe group's website describes statewide electoral programs focused on Black, young, and working-class voters in Ohio's urban centers. Its reported independent expenditures have focused on canvassing, voter guides, leaflets, and other…
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Republicans face growing midterm election concerns as new map shows several GOP-held House seats shifting toward Democrats in just one weekRepublicans are facing a fresh warning sign ahead of the midterms, as new election ratings show a number of GOP-held House seats shifting toward Democrats. The latest changes affect races across multiple states, including Iowa… -
Ramaswamy pledges tax and utility cuts at Miami County GOP picnicRepublican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy attended a Miami County Republican Party picnic Sunday, Oct. 18, in Tipp City. AIMEE HANCOCK / STAFF Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy promised lower property taxes and… - Representative Mike Carey introduces H.R. 10813: Historic Preservation and Land Conservation Certainty ActWe have received text from H.R. 10813: Historic Preservation and Land Conservation Certainty Act. This bill was received on 2026-10-15, and currently has 4 cosponsors. This bill would create a one-time way for certain partnerships involved…
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No Kings rallies in Columbus push early voting, door-to-door outreachAt No Kings rallies around Columbus and the rest of the country, the locally organized but nationally branded protests were all themed around encouraging voter turnout. Several events throughout the day of Oct. 17 in the Columbus area… -
Map Shows 14 GOP-Held House Seats Shifting Toward Democrats in Past WeekOct 16, 2026 at 03:23 PM EDT Republicans have been dealt another blow as data compiled from the Cook Political Report shows 14 U.S. House seats in 10 states currently held by Republicans are shifting toward Democrats 18 days before the… -
11 more seats shift toward Democrats, including 3 in safe red areasProjections for 11 more House seats have shifted in favor of the Democratic Party, as talks of a blue wave in the 2026 midterm elections have reached a crescendo. On Friday, the forecaster projected that Florida’s 16th Congressional… -
House passes bill extending enhanced premium tax creditsThe House Jan. 8 passed legislation granting a three-year extension of the enhanced premium tax credits, which the federal government offers to help some individuals and families purchase insurance on the health insurance marketplaces. The… - Miami County Election Guide 2026Miami County Voter Guide: Candidates and Issues on the Nov. 3, 2026, Ballot Compiled by This Local Life. Sources, Besides the Miami County BOE, Linked Below this Article TROY - Miami County voters will head to the polls Tuesday, Nov. 3, to…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions