Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.42%median
14%34%
Median 28.42%Middle half 26.14% – 30.91%
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NY-23 House election: Aaron Gies vote percent
The odds
39.27%median
30%50%
Median 39.27%Middle half 36.59% – 41.94%
How the odds have moved
Median: 38.48% on Oct 19, 39.27% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 32% | 97% | 93¢ | $1.04 | |||
| At least 34% | 92% | 87¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | ||
| At least 36% | 80% | 75¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | ||
| At least 38% | 63% | 58¢ | 68¢ | $1.47 | ||
| At least 40% | 43% | ▲ 1 | 38¢ | 47¢ | $2.13 | |
| At least 42% | 25% | ▲ 1 | 20¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | |
| At least 44% | 12% | ▲ 1 | 7¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | |
| At least 46% | 5% | 9¢ | $11.11 | |||
| At least 48% | 3% | 6¢ | $16.67 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: NY- House, Aaron Gies
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Aaron Gies: Government should work for people and their communities - Olean Times HeraldWELLSVILLE — Democratic congressional candidate Aaron Gies advocated expanding Social Security funding, establishing universal health care and conditioning U.S. aid to Israel during a town hall attended by about 300 people Tuesday night at… -
NY House candidate Brad Lander briefly detained by Israeli military in West BankWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a… -
Langworthy holds a 37-to-1 cash edge in NY-23 as Gies outraises him again in the final stretchBuffalo, New York · Western New York Buffalo · Western New York Rep. Nick Langworthy entered the last weeks of the NY-23 race with nearly $2 million in the bank to Aaron Gies’ $54,000. But FEC filings show the Democrat has outraised the… -
In Langworthy Country, the Money Flocks to GiesHome » In Langworthy Country, the Money Flocks to Gies From Aaron Gies for Congress, pictured is Gies with members of the Allegany County Democratic Committee Olean, NY — Aaron Gies, the Democratic candidate for New York’s 23rd… -
Who’s on the ballot in Erie County?Grace Cole, Managing Editor October 24, 2026 • No Comments What defines "fall vibes?" Early voting starts today in Erie County and lasts until election day on Nov. 3. Find out where the closest early voting location is to you at this link!… -
Rep. Langworthy makes case for third term, emphasizing tax cuts, affordability - Olean Times HeraldOLEAN — U.S. Rep. Nick Langworthy is running for a third term by emphasizing tax cuts, local control over development and constituent service while drawing contrasts with Democratic challenger Aaron Gies over health care, spending and… -
Lawler, Conley battle for competitive NY House seatFox News Lawler, Conley battle for competitive NY House seat Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., joins ‘Fox News Live’ to discuss his heated debate against Democratic challenger Cait Conley in New York’s 17th Congressional District, the Paris… -
No Kings event in Olean rallies voters for midterm election - Olean Times HeraldOLEAN — As part of the No Kings Nationwide Day of Action on Saturday, more than 120 people turned out for Voices of the People Movement's event on East Street across from Bradner Stadium. Organizer Jessica Davis said area residents turned… -
OP-ED: Return checks and balances to CongressHome » OP-ED: Return checks and balances to Congress A OPINION by Sid Parks, Hornell NY Our Republican Congress has given control of our government to the president, so we no longer have a democracy. With no controls, President Trump has… -
NY House Rep Ritchie Torres introduces legislation to protect player ownership of gamesThe Power to the Players Act aims to 'establish regulations protecting consumers' ability to own and play the video games they purchase.' The office of Ritchie Torres published a statement regarding the Power to the Players Act on October… -
New: How the 'Mamdanification' of the Dem Party Could Be Their Undoing in a Crucial NY House RaceWhen Zohran Mamdani became the Democrat mayoral nominee in New York City in the summer of 2025, many political observers wondered whether the second-place finisher, disgraced former NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo, would somehow emerge victorious in… -
Dems open Jamestown headquartersJamestown Democratic Headquarters recently celebrated its opening. About 100 people turned out for the event. Pictured, from left, are: Jason Sample (candidate for Jamestown City Council), Tom Nelson (incumbent running for County…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions