Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
27.83%median
14%34%
Median 27.83%Middle half 25.59% – 30.33%
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NY-20 House election: Ralph Ambrosio vote percent
The odds
35.48%median
26%46%
Median 35.48%Middle half 32.88% – 38.07%
How the odds have moved
Median: 34.6% on Oct 19, 35.48% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 28% | 97% | 94¢ | $1.03 | |||
| At least 30% | 94% | 89¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | ||
| At least 32% | 83% | 78¢ | 87¢ | $1.15 | ||
| At least 34% | 66% | 61¢ | 70¢ | $1.43 | ||
| At least 36% | 45% | 40¢ | 49¢ | $2.04 | ||
| At least 38% | 26% | 21¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | ||
| At least 40% | 12% | 7¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | ||
| At least 42% | 5% | 9¢ | $11.11 | |||
| At least 44% | 3% | 6¢ | $16.67 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: NY- House, Ralph Ambrosio
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NY House candidate Brad Lander briefly detained by Israeli military in West BankWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a… -
Early voting begins Saturday ahead of Nov. 3 general electionSARATOGA COUNTY, N.Y. –– Beginning Saturday, Oct. 24, those who wish to get out and cast their ballots ahead of Election Day can do so, with early voting locations set to open at a variety of sites throughout the county. Those wishing to… -
Tonko, Ambrosio debate at CBS6 in race for NY-20President Trump delivers remarks at a midterm rally in Pendleton, South Carolina. NISKAYUNA, N.Y. (WRGB) — Incumbent Democratic U.S. Rep. Paul Tonko and Republican challenger Ralph Ambrosio squared off Wednesday night in a debate moderated… -
Early voting to begin Saturday ahead of Nov. 3 general electionCAPITAL REGION, N.Y. — Early voting is set to begin this Saturday ahead of the general election set for Nov. 3, as several state, congressional, and local seats are up for grabs. Early voters can cast their ballots until Nov. 1. The polls… -
Tonko and Ambrosio spar in feisty NY-20 debateU.S. Rep. Paul Tonko [left] and GOP challenger Ralph Ambrosio take part in a CBS6 debate in Niskayuna on Oct. 21, 2026. NISKAYUNA — Republican Congressional candidate Ralph Ambrosio showed up looking for a fight in his debate with… -
Lawler, Conley battle for competitive NY House seatFox News Lawler, Conley battle for competitive NY House seat Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., joins ‘Fox News Live’ to discuss his heated debate against Democratic challenger Cait Conley in New York’s 17th Congressional District, the Paris… - Tonko, Ambrosio make their cases in 20th Congressional District raceVoters in the Capital Region’s 20th Congressional District are choosing between a longtime Democratic incumbent and a Republican who has never held elected office. Democratic Rep. Paul Tonko is facing Republican challenger Ralph Ambrosio…
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NY House Rep Ritchie Torres introduces legislation to protect player ownership of gamesThe Power to the Players Act aims to 'establish regulations protecting consumers' ability to own and play the video games they purchase.' The office of Ritchie Torres published a statement regarding the Power to the Players Act on October… -
Tonko, Ambrosio vie for NY-20 votes in first debateRalph Ambrosio, the Republican candidate for New York's 20th Congressional District, speaks during a debate hosted on Thursday by a consortium of media outlets the Times Union, WMHT, WNYT Newschannel 13 and WAMC Northeast Public Media… -
New: How the 'Mamdanification' of the Dem Party Could Be Their Undoing in a Crucial NY House RaceWhen Zohran Mamdani became the Democrat mayoral nominee in New York City in the summer of 2025, many political observers wondered whether the second-place finisher, disgraced former NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo, would somehow emerge victorious in… -
Watch live at 7 p.m.: Tonko, Ambrosio debateALBANY — Incumbent Democratic U.S. Rep. Paul Tonko and his Republican opponent, attorney Ralph Ambrosio, will debate at 7 p.m. Thursday live from the studios of WMHT Public Media. The exchange is co-sponsored by a consortium of local media… -
A deep dive on the race for New York's 20th Congressional DistrictWAMC A deep dive on the race for New York's 20th Congressional District WMHT's New York NOW unpacked the race for New York's 20th Congressional District between longtime U.S. Rep. Paul Tonko and Republican challenger Ralph Ambrosio. The…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions