Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.42%median
14%34%
Median 28.42%Middle half 26.14% – 30.91%
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NY-12 House election: Micah Lasher vote percent
The odds
80.43%median
72%92%
Median 80.43%Middle half 77.92% – 82.53%
How the odds have moved
Median: 80.55% on Oct 19, 80.43% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 74% | 94% | 89¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | ||
| At least 76% | 87% | 82¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | ||
| At least 78% | 75% | ▲ 2 | 70¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | 236 |
| At least 80% | 56% | 51¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 105 | |
| At least 82% | 30% | 26¢ | 34¢ | $2.94 | 683 | |
| At least 84% | 11% | 7¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 337 | |
| At least 86% | 4% | 7¢ | $14.29 | |||
| At least 88% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| At least 90% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: NY- House, Micah Lasher
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NY House candidate Brad Lander briefly detained by Israeli military in West BankWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a… -
Recommended StoriesWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a… -
Mike Bloomberg spent $80M to boost Democrats in midterms: NYTMike Bloomberg spent $80 million in September and October to help Democrats regain majority control of the House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections, The New York Times reported Tuesday, citing his team. Shortly after The… -
SOME BILLIONAIRES ARE OK NOW: Mike Bloomberg Sinking Millions Into Midterms to Help Elect DemocratsLiberal billionaire Mike Bloomberg is pouring upward of $80 million into the midterms to help Democrats. Someone get Bernie Sanders on the phone immediately. An oligarch is trying to buy our elections. Hating billionaires and wanting ‘big… -
Lawler, Conley battle for competitive NY House seatFox News Lawler, Conley battle for competitive NY House seat Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., joins ‘Fox News Live’ to discuss his heated debate against Democratic challenger Cait Conley in New York’s 17th Congressional District, the Paris… -
Bloomberg pours $80 million into House fight as Trump renews $400 million vowOn Tuesday, The New York Times reported that Mike Bloomberg put $80 million into efforts to flip the House to Democratic control, with his adviser Howard Wolfson saying Bloomberg "is of the view that resources matter in campaigns" and that… -
NYT: Billionaire Michael Bloomberg Dumps $80M to Help Democrats Snag HouseBillionaire former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg hefted $80 million in a final push to help Democrats score big in the 2026 midterm elections. Bloomberg’s massive cash dump is specifically aimed at helping Democrats regain majority… -
Attorney General James Takes Action to Protect New York Consumers and Small BusinessesClick to read more. Attorney General James Takes Action to Protect New York Consumers and Small Businesses New York Attorney General Letitia James advanced new legislation to protect consumers and small businesses from unfair, deceptive… - American billionaire Michael Bloomberg gives Democrats $80 million before US midtermsMichael Bloomberg, the billionaire founder of Bloomberg LP and former New York City mayor, has given Democrats about $80 million ahead of the November midterms. American billionaire Michael Bloomberg has given about $80 million to…
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NY House Rep Ritchie Torres introduces legislation to protect player ownership of gamesThe Power to the Players Act aims to 'establish regulations protecting consumers' ability to own and play the video games they purchase.' The office of Ritchie Torres published a statement regarding the Power to the Players Act on October… -
Prediction markets spend millions to influence state, federal governments100th Anniversary Sale! Get 2 years of digital access for only $100/year A supporter checks the gambling site 'Kalshi" just before State Assembly member, Alex Bores (D-NY) gives a speech to supporters at his watch party at The Freehand… -
New: How the 'Mamdanification' of the Dem Party Could Be Their Undoing in a Crucial NY House RaceWhen Zohran Mamdani became the Democrat mayoral nominee in New York City in the summer of 2025, many political observers wondered whether the second-place finisher, disgraced former NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo, would somehow emerge victorious in…
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All house ›Alaska Governor election: Dave Bronson vote percent (1st Round)
15.8%median
8%28%
Median 15.8%Middle half 14.13% – 18%
Alaska Governor election: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vote percent (1st Round)
44.81%median
32%56%
Median 44.81%Middle half 41.38% – 48.24%
Alaska Governor election: Treg Taylor vote percent (1st Round)
10.65%median
0%16%
Median 10.65%Middle half 8.36% – 13.48%
Montana Senate election: Alani Bankhead vote percent
13.88%median
7%40%
Median 13.88%Middle half 10.55% – 17.65%
Montana Senate election: Kurt Alme vote percent
45.43%median
30%65%
Median 45.43%Middle half 41.97% – 48.29%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions