Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.42%median
14%34%
Median 28.42%Middle half 26.14% – 30.91%
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NM-01 House election: Melanie Stansbury vote percent
The odds
61.19%median
52%72%
Median 61.19%Middle half 57.91% – 64.58%
How the odds have moved
Median: 61.7% on Oct 19, 61.19% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 54% | 93% | 88¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | ||
| At least 56% | 86% | 81¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | ||
| At least 58% | 75% | 70¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | 200 | |
| At least 60% | 60% | 55¢ | 64¢ | $1.56 | ||
| At least 62% | 44% | 39¢ | 48¢ | $2.08 | ||
| At least 64% | 28% | 24¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | ||
| At least 66% | 17% | 12¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | ||
| At least 68% | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | ||
| At least 70% | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: NM- House, Melanie Stansbury
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Stansbury, Okpareke clash over affordability, crime and Medicaid in CD-1 debateAlamogordo News Stansbury, Okpareke clash over affordability, crime and Medicaid in CD-1 debate Affordability, crime and healthcare were key topics of a televised debate by Democratic U.S. Rep. Melanie Stansbury and her GOP challenger in… -
House Democrats Make Hegseth Their First Impeachment Target, Vote Expected Next MonthHouse Democrats are rallying behind impeaching Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, with a floor vote likely next month while Republicans still control the chamber, The Wall Street Journal reported. Party leaders and candidates in competitive… -
New Mexico US Rep. Stansbury touts state’s universal healthcare push during Albuquerque visitU.S. Rep. Melanie Stansbury (D-N.M.) on Thursday visited Albuquerque to tout roughly $11 million in funding her office has secured for an array of healthcare programs, including cancer research, mobile crisis centers and a sobering center… -
Hegseth Impeachment Threats Collide With Democrats' Demands in Pentagon Funding FightCongressional Democrats are now openly signaling that Secretary of War Pete Hegseth must be removed after the November 3 midterms before they will cooperate on emergency defense funding and the regular appropriations bills needed to keep… -
Ansari, other congressional Dems seek end to sexual violence(The Center Square) – Three congressional Democratic representatives talked about dangers that female politicians face frequently during a press conference Tuesday inside a Midtown Phoenix high-rise office building. The trio of lawmakers… -
Trump wants New Mexico renamed ‘New America’, State leaders push backHe added that the proposed name would bring greater prestige to the state and claimed that home values and incomes would rise. Trump also repeated his allegations of electoral fraud in New Mexico, suggesting that a name change could make… -
President Trump reiterating New Mexico's name change to New AmericaRepublican candidates in the state are speaking out about it President Donald Trump suggested on Monday that New Mexico should change its name to "New America," sparking reactions from political candidates. "New Mexico should immediately… -
Donald Trump demands New Mexico be rebranded ‘New America’ in furious online rantHe said the move should be immediate and would increase 'patriotism' US President Donald Trump has created a firestorm just two weeks before the midterms by demanding that the state of New Mexico be immediately renamed ‘New America’… - Trump Proposes Renaming New Mexico To 'New America'KFYR 550 AM / 99.7 FM President Donald Trump has proposed changing the name of New Mexico to "New America," according to a post on Truth Social. Trump stated, "We are not Mexico, we are the United States of America!" He suggested that the…
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Special Interview: Democrat Melanie Stansbury on her bid for re-election to congressKOB 4 Special Interview: Democrat Melanie Stansbury on her bid for re-election to congress ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. – Congresswoman Melanie Stansbury, D-N.M., joined KOB to discuss her time in congress and issues surrounding New Mexico’s Epstein… -
NBC Poll shows President Trump’s approval rating at 34% with the economy on the top of voters’ mindsALBUQUERQUE, N.M. – An NBC News poll shows the economy leads voter concerns as midterms near, while President Trump’s approval and views of both parties remain weak. NBC News surveyed more than 19,000 adults between Sept. 28 and Oct. 12… -
Albuquerque 'No Kings' protest urges early votingThousands gathered across the U.S., including in Albuquerque, for 'No Kings' rallies encouraging early voting ahead of the midterm elections. Demonstrators in Albuquerque joined nationwide "No Kings" protests on Saturday, urging people to…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions