Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.42%median
14%34%
Median 28.42%Middle half 26.14% – 30.91%
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NJ-10 House election: LaMonica McIver vote percent
The odds
79.56%median
70%90%
Median 79.56%Middle half 75.9% – 82.93%
How the odds have moved
Median: 80.4% on Oct 20, 79.56% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 72% | 92% | 87¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | ||
| At least 74% | 85% | 80¢ | 89¢ | $1.12 | ||
| At least 76% | 75% | 70¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | 400 | |
| At least 78% | 63% | 58¢ | 67¢ | $1.49 | 205 | |
| At least 80% | 47% | 42¢ | 51¢ | $1.96 | 1.1K | |
| At least 82% | 32% | 27¢ | 36¢ | $2.78 | 1.1K | |
| At least 84% | 18% | 13¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 620 | |
| At least 86% | 8% | 3¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 2.1K | |
| At least 88% | 4% | 7¢ | $14.29 | 210 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: NJ- House, LaMonica McIver
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DOJ Charges Virginia Senate Leader, Louise LucasThe Trump administration has charged one of the most powerful Democratic lawmakers in Virginia with racketeering and money laundering conspiracy in connection to a cannabis business she co-owns with family members. Six other people were… -
This Nov. 3rd, Stand up for the Country, Stand up Against the Election Deniers and the Trump ProtectorsTRENTON - In less than two weeks, Americans will go to the polls to render judgement on the grotesque, hate-filled, corrupt and Orwellian two-year tenure of President Donald J. Trump (pictured, above, with the late Jeffrey Epstein), who… -
LAN backs House incumbents, Garcia for JCBOE, and Weiner for commissionerThe Latino Action Network (LAN) is endorsing U.S. Reps. Rob Menendez (D-8), Nellie Pou (D-9), and LaMonica McIver (D-10), as well as Fernando Garcia for the Jersey City Board of Education (BOE) and Dr. Aaron Weiner for Hudson County… -
State PBA endorses Kean for re-electionPolice union also supports Van Drew, Smith, Gottheimer and Pallone, but stays neutral in U.S. Senate race By David Wildstein, October 20 2026 3:51 pm The New Jersey State Policemen’s Benevolent Association has endorsed Rep. Tom Kean, Jr… -
DOJ Is Still Withholding Evidence DHS Entrapped LaMonica McIverby emptywheel | Oct 16, 2026 | Immigration, Weaponized DOJ | 0 comments WaPo has an update on Trump’s efforts to gin up some excuse to deport Ilhan Omar, revealing that Trump already investigated the things they’re pursuing now, but found… -
Trump Admin Targets Black Women in Power: Fed Governor Lisa Cook, AG Tish James, Senator L. Louise Lucas, Congresswomen LaMonica McIver and Rep. Ilhan OmarThe Legacy Newspaper Above: Congresswoman Ilhan Omar (D-MN), Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook, New York Attorney General Tish James, Congresswoman LaMonica McIver (D-NJ) and Virginia State Senator L. Louise Lucas President Donald… -
The Ilhan Omar home search fits a very political pattern for Trump and his DOJIt remains to be seen what kind of evidence the Trump Justice Department has against Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, whose DC-area home federal officers searched on Monday. But it’s worth emphasizing that she’s been a frequent… -
US House Dem leaders condemn Homeland Security raid on home of Rep. Ilhan OmarPresident Donald Trump on Monday tried to boost Sen. Jon Husted’s reelection campaign by attacking two groups of Black immigrants during a rally in Ohio, where an organization with Republican ties began promoting a socialist candidate over… -
Insider NJ’s Morning Intelligence Briefing: 10/12/2026QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I would still consider Van Drew’s district to be an uphill climb for Democrats. If the blue tsunami continues to rise and continues to get taller, then it could sweep up a district like this. There’s a lot of seawall…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions