Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.42%median
14%34%
Median 28.42%Middle half 26.14% – 30.91%
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NJ-04 House election: Chris Smith vote percent
The odds
62.68%median
52%72%
Median 62.68%Middle half 59.93% – 65.44%
How the odds have moved
Median: 62.26% on Oct 20, 62.68% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 54% | 96% | 94¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | ||
| At least 56% | 95% | ▲ 1 | 92¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | |
| At least 58% | 89% | 84¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | ||
| At least 60% | 75% | 70¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | 1.0K | |
| At least 62% | 57% | ▼ 1 | 54¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 5.3K |
| At least 64% | 37% | 32¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | 536 | |
| At least 66% | 21% | 16¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 537 | |
| At least 68% | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | ||
| At least 70% | 3% | 6¢ | $16.67 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: NJ- House, Chris Smith
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Almost 15,000 ballots so far in Montgomery County early voting, on pace to 45% turnoutWith early voting for the Nov. 3 election halfway through, almost 15,000 people in Montgomery County have cast their ballots, much higher than 2022. CLARKSVILLE, TN (CLARKSVILLE NOW) – With early voting for the Nov. 3 election halfway… -
2026 Election In Middletown: When, Where To VoteMIDDLETOWN, NJ — Election Day is Nov. 3, but early, in-person voting starts Saturday. Middletown residents will be asked to make a choice for U.S. Senate, Congress, choose two people for Middletown Township Committee and elect three people… -
Gillette City Council shares updates on Downtown events, upcoming public meetingsGILLETTE, Wyo. — During council comments at the Oct. 20 City Council meeting, Councilmember Jim West raised concerns about city rules that allow property owners to be penalized for damaged vehicles parked in private driveways. The… -
Bossier City Council introduces 2027 budget after nearly $3M in cuts(The Center Square) - The Bossier City Council introduced its proposed 2027 operating and capital budgets Tuesday after city officials identified nearly $3 million in spending cuts to address a projected $1.8 million general fund deficit… -
Jason Arday crowdfunder nears £250k target as Bell Ribeiro-Addy demands Parliament acts on press hounding of Black professorA GoFundMe set up in memory of Professor Jason Arday who was found dead at his home in Battersea on 14th August, has raised over £244,000 as his constituency MP demands a full parliamentary debate on press regulation. Clapham and Brixton… -
Can Montgomery County ban data centers? 5 things to know | ANALYSISWith discussion of new rules for data centers in Montgomery County, some are calling for a ban. But is that possible? Here's what we can and can't do. CLARKSVILLE, TN (CLARKSVILLE NOW) – The Montgomery County Commission voted this week to… -
State PBA endorses Kean for re-electionPolice union also supports Van Drew, Smith, Gottheimer and Pallone, but stays neutral in U.S. Senate race By David Wildstein, October 20 2026 3:51 pm The New Jersey State Policemen’s Benevolent Association has endorsed Rep. Tom Kean, Jr… -
RFK Jr.’s EPA capitulates to anti-abortionists, authorizes study of safe abortion pills which activists falsely claim are “poisoning” our water supplyThe claim isn’t new. For decades, anti-abortion advocates have argued that abortion medications, primarily mifepristone, pollute the environment and put pregnant people’s health at risk. But the argument has now become part of a widespread… -
U.S. lawmakers told of Pakistan’s religious rights violationsReligious freedom advocates have urged U.S. lawmakers to push Pakistan to end the abduction, forced religious conversion and marriage of minority girls, warning that weak law enforcement and judicial failures leave Christian and other… -
Foreign Policy Drives Demands For Accountability From House Candidates In NJBy Dana DiFilippo, New Jersey Monitor Foreign policy has taken an outsized role in the run-up to next month’s midterm elections, as candidates and voters alike increasingly blame the Iran war and new tariffs for worsening affordability at… - Press Release: Lou Correa, Chris Smith Introduce Bill to Expand Child Care for Children With Developmental DisabilitiesCorrea and Smith propose a tax credit to help childcare providers support children with developmental disabilities. Bill introduced: Reps. Lou Correa and Chris Smith introduced the bipartisan Bright Beginnings Act, which would create a…
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Lakewood Vaad endorses Cory Booker, Chris Smith in November electionInfluential Orthodox Jewish leadership group backs split-ticket ticket of Coles and Fuentes for Township Committee, Frank Sadeghi for county commissioner, endorses school board and fire commissioner candidates By David Wildstein, October…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions