Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
27.83%median
14%34%
Median 27.83%Middle half 25.59% – 30.33%
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NJ-03 House election: Herb Conaway vote percent
The odds
61.95%median
50%70%
Median 61.95%Middle half 59.1% – 64.6%
How the odds have moved
Median: 61.84% on Oct 19, 61.95% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 52% | 98% | 95¢ | $1.03 | |||
| At least 54% | 97% | 93¢ | $1.04 | |||
| At least 56% | 94% | 89¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | ||
| At least 58% | 84% | 79¢ | 88¢ | $1.14 | ||
| At least 60% | 68% | 64¢ | 72¢ | $1.39 | 5.00 | |
| At least 62% | 50% | 45¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | ||
| At least 64% | 30% | 25¢ | 34¢ | $2.94 | ||
| At least 66% | 14% | 10¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | ||
| At least 68% | 6% | 2¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: NJ- House, Herb Conaway
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NJ midterms 2026: Booker, all 12 House seats on the Nov. 3 ballotS.E. Cupp and Bill Anderson break down the key races shaping the 2026 midterm elections and the fight for control. NEW JERSEY - New Jersey voters head to the polls Tuesday, Nov. 3, with seats in both the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House on… -
McGuire makes his case against Conaway, citing shutdown, taxes and affordabilityRepublican challenger criticizes Conaway’s record on taxes and pensions while calling for campaign finance reform By Joe Seewald, October 20 2026 10:09 pm Republican congressional nominee Michael McGuire is making the government shutdown… -
State PBA endorses Kean for re-electionPolice union also supports Van Drew, Smith, Gottheimer and Pallone, but stays neutral in U.S. Senate race By David Wildstein, October 20 2026 3:51 pm The New Jersey State Policemen’s Benevolent Association has endorsed Rep. Tom Kean, Jr… -
Democrat Donald Norcross has not debated an opponent in a decade, the longest among New Jersey congressional incumbentsNorcross, who is running for a seventh U.S. House term, last faced off against a Republican in 2016. He says he “debates the issues everyday.” U.S. Rep. Donald Norcross speaking at a news conference in Cherry Hill, New Jersey, on Oct. 16… -
SNJDC's 44th Annual Sound Off for South Jersey Legislative ConferenceMore than 200 South Jersey business leaders gathered Friday, October 16, for the Southern New Jersey Development Council’s (SNJDC) 44th Annual Sound Off for South Jersey Legislative Conference, presented by South Jersey Industries, where… -
We Won. White House Finally Releases Frozen Funds.With only hours remaining. Last week, the Trump administration released lifesaving foreign aid it had frozen for months. You helped make that happen. Here is the inside story. Trump shut down USAID. Republicans in Congress turned their…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions