Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
27.83%median
14%34%
Median 27.83%Middle half 25.59% – 30.33%
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MO-08 House election: Jason Smith vote percent
The odds
71.09%median
62%84%
Median 71.09%Middle half 68.61% – 73.45%
How the odds have moved
Median: 72.69% on Oct 20, 71.09% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 64% | 97% | ▲ 1 | 94¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | |
| At least 66% | 93% | ▲ 1 | 88¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | |
| At least 68% | 81% | ▲ 1 | 76¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | |
| At least 70% | 63% | ▲ 1 | 58¢ | 67¢ | $1.49 | 2.9K |
| At least 72% | 40% | 35¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | ||
| At least 74% | 20% | 15¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | ||
| At least 76% | 7% | 2¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | ||
| At least 78% | 3% | 6¢ | $16.67 | |||
| At least 80% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| At least 82% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: MO- House, Jason Smith
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Singham-linked nonprofits defy House ultimatum, blast 'MAGA-led witch hunt'Two nonprofits linked to Marxist tech tycoon Neville Roy Singham have rejected a congressional ultimatum to turn over financial records, accusing lawmakers of using a foreign-influence investigation to target their political views and… -
Mike Friend looks to keep HD 102 in Democratic hands as Mery Lopez-Palma seeks a flipDemocrats are hoping to extend their hold on the Democratic-leaning House District 102, which covers an inland portion of Broward County that includes all or parts of Davie, Plantation and Sunrise. Democratic dentist Mike Friend and… -
BreakThrough Responds To Congressional Threats To ‘Hold Staff Hostage’In October, BreakThrough News received a letter from Rep. Jason Smith of the House Ways and Means Committee, threatening to personally subpoena seven members of our journalistic, editorial and administrative staff — including Rania Khalek… -
Rubio, Jaishankar Attend Freedom 250 ReceptionWollongong-based online news outlet covering Australia and beyond. If you have anything newsworthy - a story, video or picture to share with us, please email us. AMBASSADOR GOR: Good evening, everybody, and welcome to this great… -
Coupang spends $3.6m lobbying Washington as midterms approachBusiness Coupang spends $3.6m lobbying Washington as midterms approach Published : Oct. 23, 2026 - 15:16:23 My reporting finds form wherever the 'K-' prefix grafts onto food, beauty and fashion E-commerce giant Coupang spent about $3.6… -
Singham Network Nonprofits Defy House Ultimatum and Cry MAGA Witch Hunt [WATCH]Two nonprofits linked to Marxist tech tycoon Neville Roy Singham have rejected a congressional ultimatum demanding financial records, accusing lawmakers of targeting their political views and violating their First Amendment rights. The… -
Bipartisan U.S. congressional delegation meets with Dalai Lama to reaffirm enduring supportNew representatives to Dalai Lama’s Bureaus in Australia and Taiwan appointed Bipartisan U.S. congressional delegation meets with Dalai Lama to reaffirm enduring support Beijing forcibly shutters three Tibetan schools in Golog amid… -
Over half of this year’s North Carolina races are uncontested, including 17 in the Cape FearNEW HANOVER COUNTY — There are 17 uncontested races on the November ballot in New Hanover, Pender, and Brunswick counties, and all the candidates are Republican. However, according to a political scientist, New Hanover County voters are… -
Union electrician running for Missouri’s 8th Congressional seatChris Reichard, a 10-year member of IBEW Local 1, is running for Missouri’s 8th Congressional seat. Reichard will face off against incumbent Republican Jason Smith. The district covers Southeast Missouri and South Central Missouri as well… -
Trump Signs Bill to Reopen Social Security, Medicare Opt-Ins for Priests, ClergyPresident Donald Trump signed into law a measure that allows clergy — including Catholic priests and bishops — to opt back in to Social Security and Medicare if they had previously opted out of the program. Under the tax code, clergy may… -
US Congress delegation meets Dalai Lama in DharamshalaDharamshala (HP), Oct 21 (PTI) A five-member US Congress delegation met Tibetan spiritual leader Dalai Lama, at his residence in McLeod Ganj in Dharamshala in Himachal Pradesh’s Kangra district on Wednesday. Representatives Jason Smith… -
BreakThrough responds to Congressional threats to ‘hold the staff hostage’Rep. Jason Smith of Missouri, Chairperson of the House Ways and Means Committee In October, BreakThrough News received a letter from Rep. Jason Smith of the House Ways and Means Committee, threatening to personally subpoena seven members…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions