Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.42%median
14%34%
Median 28.42%Middle half 26.14% – 30.91%
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MN-05 House election: John Nagel vote percent
The odds
20.57%median
12%32%
Median 20.57%Middle half 18.69% – 22.57%
How the odds have moved
Median: 20.88% on Oct 20, 20.57% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 14% | 98% | 95¢ | $1.03 | 1.2K | ||
| At least 16% | 96% | ▼ 1 | 92¢ | $1.04 | 700 | |
| At least 18% | 84% | ▼ 3 | 80¢ | 88¢ | $1.14 | 6.5K |
| At least 20% | 58% | ▼ 5 | 54¢ | 62¢ | $1.61 | 1.5K |
| At least 22% | 30% | ▼ 5 | 26¢ | 34¢ | $2.94 | 338 |
| At least 24% | 13% | ▼ 3 | 8¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | |
| At least 26% | 4% | ▼ 1 | 8¢ | $12.50 | ||
| At least 28% | 3% | ▼ 1 | 5¢ | $20.00 | ||
| At least 30% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | 12.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: MN- House, John Nagel
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Free Air Time: 5th Congressional District Candidate John Nagel5 EYEWITNESS NEWS Free Air Time: 5th Congressional District Candidate John Nagel Free Air Time: MN 5th Congressional District John Nagel This election season, 5 EYEWITNESS NEWS is giving candidates in Minnesota’s biggest races a chance to… -
'Ilhan Omar' Rakes in $1.5 Million Amid DHS Investigation, Brother Marriage AllegationsThings might not be going so well for Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota amid investigations into whether she uses a fake name, entered the U.S. illegally, and married her brother. But the anti-Trump, anti-Israel, anti-America… -
Trump Says Ilhan Omar ‘Could Be’ Deported After Feds Access DNA In Citizenship Probe Before MidtermsUS President Donald Trump this week cited the possibility that Democratic Representative Ilhan Omar of Minnesota could be deported as federal agencies probe her naturalisation and immigration status. The representative, who describes… -
Ilhan Omar Says 'We're Not Going to Be Intimidated' Amid Intensifying Immigration ProbeRep. Ilhan Omar has returned to social media with a defiant message for President Donald Trump following the federal raid on her home earlier this month. “Hi everyone. Ilhan here. I just wanted to say thank you so much for the support, to… -
Minnesota media rushes to smear St. Thomas student, ignores vile history of left-wing provocateurDerek Torstenson, a well-known left-wing activist and frequent protester, was shouting and reportedly holding a sign displaying the word "CUNT," details largely missing from subsequent media coverage of the St. Thomas student's viral… -
Ilhan Omar's Cover Story May Be Blown: Investigators Find Something Is Strangely 'Missing'When it comes to American politics, the most important things are often what is missing. And in the case of Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN), House Oversight Chairman James Comer is pointing to an extraordinary mystery involving a winery, millions… -
Minnesota House 30B: Chad WestbergTown of residence: Elk River Occupation: Small Business Owner Family: Wife: Sarah. Children: Owen, Siri, Leif Campaign social media: Facebook: Chad Westberg for MN House 1. What experience, skills or perspective do you believe best… -
Senate District 30: Eric LuceroAge: No response given City of residence: St. Michael Previous elected offices held: MN Senate, MN House, City Council Previous civic and community involvement: No response given Campaign social media: X = @EricLucero & Facebook =… -
‘She doesn’t have any answers’: GOP nominee slams Ilhan Omar’s record, demands election debate"She is the most anti-American person that I've ever met in my entire life. I can't believe that somebody like this was elected to represent Minnesota of all places. How did this happen?" said Republican candidate John Nagel. John Nagel, a… -
Meet John Nagel, candidate for U.S. House in Minnesota's 5th District | WCCO Election GuideOctober 13, 2026 / 3:27 PM CDT / CBS Minnesota John Nagel, the Republican nominee in Minnesota's 5th Congressional District, is a former state trooper. The district is based in Minneapolis. Watch his 60-second video pitch and read how he'd… -
Meet John Nagel, candidate for U.S. House District 5 | WCCO 2026 Midterm Election GuideCBS News Meet John Nagel, candidate for U.S. House District 5 | WCCO 2026 Midterm Election Guide Meet Lisa Demuth, candidate for Minnesota governor | WCCO 2026 Midterm Election Guide Meet Peggy Flanagan, candidate for U.S. Senate in… -
VOTER'S GUIDE: CD5 race sees Omar facing challenger NagelDFL incumbent Ilhan Omar faces Republican challenger John Nagel in the upcoming race for Minnesota’s Fifth Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives District 5 includes part or all of Minneapolis, Robbinsdale, Golden…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions