Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
27.83%median
14%34%
Median 27.83%Middle half 25.59% – 30.33%
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MN-01 House election: Jake Johnson vote percent
The odds
49.26%median
38%56%
Median 49.26%Middle half 47.22% – 51.28%
How the odds have moved
Median: 46.42% on Oct 19, 49.26% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 40% | 98% | 95¢ | $1.03 | |||
| At least 42% | 98% | 95¢ | $1.03 | 5.00 | ||
| At least 44% | 96% | ▲ 1 | 92¢ | $1.04 | 10.00 | |
| At least 46% | 88% | ▲ 3 | 83¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | 145 |
| At least 48% | 67% | ▲ 1 | 63¢ | 71¢ | $1.41 | 820 |
| At least 49% | 55% | ▲ 4 | 51¢ | 58¢ | $1.72 | |
| At least 50% | 38% | ▲ 3 | 35¢ | 40¢ | $2.50 | 807 |
| At least 52% | 18% | ▲ 4 | 14¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | |
| At least 54% | 6% | ▲ 2 | 2¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: MN- House, Jake Johnson
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Democrats Now Spending Over $2 Million In Districts Trump Won By Double-Digit PointsHouse Democrats’ top super PAC poured over $2.2 million into deep red seats Monday that they hope to flip. The House Majority PAC spent $2.2 million on television advertisements against Republican Rep. Brad Finstad in Minnesota’s first… -
Hear from the Candidates: Minnesota CD-1 candidate Jake Johnsonkaaltv.com Hear from the Candidates: Minnesota CD-1 candidate Jake Johnson Free Air Time: Minnesota CD-1 candidate Jake Johnson (ABC 6 News) — This election season, ABC 6 News is giving candidates in Minnesota’s biggest races a chance to… -
Minnesota 1st congressional district race: Finstad, Johnson ads draw criticismFOX 9's Corin Hoggard fact checks the political ads between Rep. Brad Finstad and Jake Johnson, who are both running for the congressional district one seat. (FOX 9) - The ad war in Minnesota's first congressional district is getting… -
Polls show a tight race between Finstad and Johnson. What do prediction markets say?ROCHESTER — By most traditional measures, the contest between GOP Rep. Brad Finstad and DFL challenger Jake Johnson is a dead-heat. The tightness of the race for Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District was underscored earlier this week by a… -
Safety Net or System Change? Minnesota Farmers Weigh Competing VisionsFor southern Minnesota farmers navigating tight margins, high input costs and uncertain commodity markets, the race for the state’s 1st Congressional District offers two different perspectives on how Washington should help rural America… -
‘Palestinians face far worse consequences every day,’ says Brad Lander after release from IDF custodyDemocratic US congressional candidate Brad Lander said Wednesday that he was released by Israeli forces with a “warning” after he and dozens of others were detained while helping Palestinians harvest olives in the illegally occupied West… -
Rep. Finstad tours natural gas facility in Oronoco(ABC 6 News) – Congressman Brad Finstad toured Opal Fuels in Oronoco as he continued his campaign and heard calls for clearer policy in the biofuel industry. Finstad visited the company Tuesday with two weeks left on the campaign trail… - Finstad, Johnson outline differing viewpoints ahead of electionU.S. Rep. Brad Finstad has heard the critique from southern Minnesotans constantly. “What’s going on in our state and our politics … this doesn’t feel like our way of life,” the Republican said, referencing the political hotbed Minnesota…
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Endorsement: Johnson promises fresh leadership in 1st DistrictVoters in the 1st Congressional District have a distinct choice of leadership styles to pick from this year, as incumbent Republican Brad Finstad faces a stern challenge from Democrat and first-time candidate Jake Johnson. That’s because… -
Republicans face growing midterm election concerns as new map shows several GOP-held House seats shifting toward Democrats in just one weekRepublicans are facing a fresh warning sign ahead of the midterms, as new election ratings show a number of GOP-held House seats shifting toward Democrats. The latest changes affect races across multiple states, including Iowa… -
Local professor breaks down Minnesota's midterm, from Congress to school fundingWINONA, Minn. (WXOW) — With Election Day approaching, Minnesota voters are preparing to decide several races that could change the balance of political power in the state Legislature and Congress, as shifting voter engagement makes some… -
Republicans fall back to the red wallThe unofficial guide to official Washington, every morning and weekday afternoons. You will now start receiving email updates By ADAM WREN, DASHA BURNS and WILL STEAKIN 10/19/2026 06:07 AM EDT With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco and Irie…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions