MI-02 House election: Ben Ambrose vote percent

Kalshi Elections › House Closes Nov 3, 2027 · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

36.35%median

26%46%

Median 36.35%Middle half 33.8% – 39%

How the odds have moved

Median: 35.92% on Oct 19, 36.35% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays
At least 28%	98%	95¢		$1.03
At least 30%	96%	92¢		$1.04
At least 32%	89%	84¢	93¢	$1.08
At least 34%	74%	69¢	78¢	$1.28
At least 36%	54%	49¢	58¢	$1.72
At least 38%	34%	29¢	38¢	$2.63
At least 40%	17%	12¢	21¢	$4.76
At least 42%	7%	2¢	11¢	$9.09
At least 44%	4%		7¢	$14.29

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: MI- House, Ben Ambrose

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Meet the candidates for Michigan’s 2nd Congressional District9and10News.com · 6 days agoTRAVERSE CITY — In Michigan’s 2nd Congressional District, a six-term incumbent is facing a challenge from a Marine veteran. Congressman John Moolenaar, a Republican, has represented the mid-Michigan district since 2015. Democrat Ben…
The midterms are in two weeks, here’s a run down on some of the candidatesThe Morning Sun · 11 days agoIn two weeks Michiganders will flock to the polls to vote in the Gubernatorial Election, deciding who will lead and represent the state for the next four years. Jocelyn Benson is the current Secretary of State as well as democratic…
Letter to Coast Guard on Screening, Vetting of CCP-Backed Shipping Corporation’s Operations at US Portsselectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov · 11 days agocustom page title LETTERS Letter to Coast Guard on Screening, Vetting of CCP-Backed Shipping Corporation’s Operations at US Ports Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman John Moolenaar (R-MI), House Committee on…
Michigan election 2026: Nov. 3 ballot guide for 4 countiesBig Rapids Pioneer · 12 days agoSee candidates, school bonds, millages and local proposals on Nov. 3 ballots in Mecosta, Osceola, Lake and Newaygo counties. Voters across Mecosta, Osceola, Lake and Newaygo counties will head to the polls Nov. 3 to elect state and local…
Countdown: Showing Up. Doing the work.Daily Kos · 12 days agoGREEN ACRES COTTAGE, Asheville, N.C. — Thursday, Oct. 15. For Marine veteran Ben Ambrose, a sense of duty and a commitment to service have always been core values. Now, in a time that tests the country he loves, Ambrose is putting himself…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onElections Bureau, Office of the Secretary of State, Lansing, MI

Trading closesNov 3, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$0 (0 contracts)

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Ben Ambrose in the 2026 MI-02 House election is 28% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions