MA-09 House election: Bill Keating vote percent

Kalshi Elections › House Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $2K traded · $2K at stake · prices read 64 min ago

The odds

61.84%median

50%70%

Median 61.84%Middle half 59.06% – 64.44%

How the odds have moved

Median: 62.52% on Oct 20, 61.84% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
At least 52%	98%		95¢		$1.03	819
At least 54%	97%		93¢		$1.04	1.2K
At least 56%	94%	▲ 1	89¢	98¢	$1.02
At least 58%	84%	▲ 1	79¢	88¢	$1.14
At least 60%	68%	▲ 1	63¢	72¢	$1.39
At least 62%	49%	▲ 1	44¢	53¢	$1.89	50.00
At least 64%	28%	▲ 1	24¢	32¢	$3.13	50.00
At least 66%	14%	▲ 1	10¢	19¢	$5.26
At least 68%	5%			9¢	$11.11

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: MA- House, Bill Keating

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US bill seeks to block Russian diesel dealCityairnews · 9 days agoIANS Oct 17, 2026 02:31 0 Washington, Oct 17 (IANS) A bipartisan group of US lawmakers has introduced legislation seeking to block President Donald Trump's arrangement to purchase and import Russian diesel, escalating congressional…
Bipartisan Lawmakers Move To Block President Trump’s Russian Diesel Dealindica News · 9 days agoA bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers is seeking to reverse President Donald Trump’s decision to allow Russian diesel transactions, proposing legislation that would block government investments in Russian energy and invalidate licenses…
US lawmakers seek to invalidate licences for Russian fuel transactionsOdisha News · 9 days agoWashington: A bipartisan group of US lawmakers has introduced legislation seeking to block President Donald Trump’s arrangement to purchase and import Russian diesel, escalating congressional opposition to a policy critics say could…
Bipartisan US lawmakers move to block Trump’s Russian diesel dealTelangana Today · 10 days agoBipartisan lawmakers have introduced legislation to block Russian diesel purchases under President Donald Trump’s arrangement. The bill would invalidate Treasury licences and restrict investment in Russian energy, with supporters warning…
Crow Introduces Bill to Extend Temporary Protected Status for UkrainiansRepresentative Jason Crow · 19 days agoAURORA — Congressman Jason Crow (D-CO), a former paratrooper and Army Ranger who serves on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and House Armed Services Committee, introduced legislation that will protect Ukrainian…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onElections Division, Office of the Secretary of the Commonwealth, Boston, MA

Trading closesNov 3, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$2K (2,119 contracts)

This week$6

At stake$2K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Bill Keating in the 2026 MA-09 House election is 52% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions