Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.42%median
14%34%
Median 28.42%Middle half 26.14% – 30.91%
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MA-04 House election: Jake Auchincloss vote percent
The odds
65.65%median
56%76%
Median 65.65%Middle half 62.9% – 68.21%
How the odds have moved
Median: 66.18% on Oct 20, 65.65% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 58% | 97% | 93¢ | $1.04 | |||
| At least 60% | 94% | 89¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | ||
| At least 62% | 82% | 77¢ | 87¢ | $1.15 | 2.3K | |
| At least 64% | 67% | 62¢ | 71¢ | $1.41 | ||
| At least 66% | 47% | 42¢ | 51¢ | $1.96 | ||
| At least 68% | 27% | 22¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | ||
| At least 70% | 13% | 8¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | ||
| At least 72% | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | |||
| At least 74% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: MA- House, Jake Auchincloss
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‘AK Guy’ Roasts Dem Congressman Over Ad Supporting Massachusetts Gun BanGOP Texas congressional nominee Brandon Herrera called out Dem Massachusetts Rep. Jake Auchincloss over ignorance of federal firearms laws Saturday. Republican Texas congressional nominee Brandon Herrera called out Democratic Massachusetts… -
With early race for 2028 fast approaching, 3 more Democrats slated to join summit to plot out futureOctober 20, 2026 / 9:00 AM EDT / CBS News Nine days after next month's midterm elections, three prominent Democrats who are widely believed to have presidential ambitions will join other potential 2028 party contenders in Denver to discuss… -
Republican congressional candidate Tom Stalcup on how both parties abuse science for political gainTom Stalcup on climate change, a science-based approach to politics and misinformation Scientific American spoke to the candidate for Massachusetts’s fourth congressional district about climate change, misinformation and why, when it comes… -
This Billionaire Couple Is Funding A New Democratic Initiative Challenging Both The Left And The EstablishmentBillionaire hedge fund founder Steve Mandel and his wife Sue Mandel are the primary funders for a growing Democratic political organization seeking to reshape the establishment and offer an alternative to the rising left wing of the party… -
Cong. Auchincloss to Address New England CouncilFireside chat conversation to be moderated by New England Council President & CEO Jim Brett Cong. Auchincloss to Address New England Council U.S. Representative Jake Auchincloss (D-MA4), who represents Franklin on Capitol Hill, will… -
White Powder Letters Hit Massachusetts Political Offices in Nationwide Pre-Election ScareNew Bedford Guide On Friday, October 16, suspicious letters arrived at the Salem office of U.S Seth Moulton and at the Elections Division of Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth Bill Galvinâs office Moultonâs staff did not open… -
Elected State Officials Receive Suspicious Lettersby Tom Gorman | Oct 16, 2026 | News U.S. Representatives Seth Moulton, Ayanna Pressley, Stephen Lynch, Lori Trahan, Jake Auchincloss and Secretary of the Commonwealth William Galvin received suspicious letters. Galvin said that his staff… -
At least 6 elected officials in Mass. are the latest to receive suspicious lettersThe Bay State is the latest state to receive suspicious letters sent to members of Congress and election offices across the nation. Representatives Seth Moulton, Stephen Lynch, Ayanna Pressley, Lori Trahan, Jake Auchincloss and Secretary… -
Massachusetts lawmakers seek independent probe of Burlington ICE facilityMassachusetts lawmakers sent a letter to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security Office of the Inspector General on Thursday requesting an independent inspection into what they call "inhumane conditions" at the Burlington U.S. Immigration… -
US Lawmakers Introduce Legislation to Expand Internet Access for Iranian PeopleFriday, October 16th | 5 Heshvan 5787 US lawmakers have introduced bipartisan legislation to expand the Iranian people’s access to uncensored internet, challenging the Islamic Republic’s efforts to suppress dissent and monitor… -
U.S. Rep. Gabe Amo joins Democratic colleagues for unannounced Massachusetts field office visitU.S. Rep. Gabe Amo and two other New England Democrats made an unannounced visit Friday to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) regional headquarters in Burlington, Massachusetts to follow up on reports of detainees being housed… -
Mass. lawmaker Auchincloss favors boosting U.S. biotech over targeting ChinaRep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.) has some advice for fellow lawmakers: unapologetically support the biotech industry, vilify insurance companies, and focus on making America a biotech research haven, instead of relying on protectionism…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions