Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.68%median
14%34%
Median 28.68%Middle half 26.33% – 31.08%
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MA-03 House election: Lori Trahan vote percent
The odds
66.29%median
56%76%
Median 66.29%Middle half 63.73% – 68.88%
How the odds have moved
Median: 65.81% on Oct 19, 66.29% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 58% | 97% | 94¢ | $1.03 | |||
| At least 60% | 96% | 91¢ | $1.05 | |||
| At least 62% | 88% | 83¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | ||
| At least 64% | 73% | 68¢ | 78¢ | $1.28 | ||
| At least 66% | 53% | 48¢ | 58¢ | $1.72 | ||
| At least 68% | 33% | ▲ 1 | 28¢ | 37¢ | $2.70 | 1.3K |
| At least 70% | 16% | ▲ 1 | 11¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 1.6K |
| At least 72% | 6% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | |
| At least 74% | 3% | 6¢ | $16.67 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: MA- House, Lori Trahan
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Three candidates seek 3rd Congressional DistrictLOWELL — The Massachusetts 3rd Congressional District race has some ballot competition this year with incumbent Democrat Lori Trahan defending her seat in the Nov. 3 election against Republican challenger Gary Grossi and unenrolled… -
Mass. midterm election 2026: Everything you need to knowAs the United States heads into November midterm elections, here’s everything Massachusetts voters will need to know to cast their ballots. Check out all of GBH News’ coverage for more information as Election Day approaches. And read up on… -
Editorial: Lowell deserves to see the ICC live up to its potentialIf floated as a trial balloon, let’s hope it went over like a lead balloon. That being any discussion of turning the now vacant Inn & Conference Center in the heart of Lowell’s downtown into any sort of homeless shelter. Apparently, that… -
Anthropic Pitches AI Safety Bill With 50-Death, $1 Billion ThresholdUnder the federal AI bill Anthropic has drafted, Washington could stop a frontier model only after a judge agrees it poses a foreseeable, imminent risk to more than 50 people or more than $1 billion in damage. The company has been quietly… - Bipartisan AI bill ‘well-positioned to move’ in D.C., Trahan saysU.S. Rep. Lori Trahan said Thursday she’s gathering bipartisan support “at a good clip” for her proposed federal artificial intelligence regulations known as the FRONTIER Act. Despite a lack of public confidence in either political party…
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Anthropic to rewrite part of its leaked AI bill after safety backlashSafety advocates say the draft is weaker than the bipartisan FRONTIER Act. Anthropic says its preemption wording was “not precise enough” and will be rewritten. Anthropic has told US lawmakers it will rewrite part of its own draft AI… -
Lowell’s ICC eyed as 24-hour homeless shelterLOWELL — The possible future of the vacant Inn & Conference Center in Downtown Lowell as a 24-hour homeless shelter operation was briefly discussed during a recent meeting of the Lowell City Council. City Manager Tom Golden said that in… -
Anthropic Proposes Congress Bill Mirroring Claude’s Internal Safety PoliciesOctober 18, 2026 @ 4:15 pm By Omar Faridi Anthropic, the developer of the Claude series of models, has been privately circulating a draft bill to lawmakers on Capitol Hill that would establish federal rules for frontier AI systems… - Anthropic is pitching Congress its own AI safety bill, report saysAnthropic has been privately pitching lawmakers on a draft bill to regulate frontier AI safety and security, POLITICO reported Friday. The outlet cited three people familiar with the effort and obtained a copy of the confidential draft. An…
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White Powder Letters Hit Massachusetts Political Offices in Nationwide Pre-Election ScareNew Bedford Guide On Friday, October 16, suspicious letters arrived at the Salem office of U.S Seth Moulton and at the Elections Division of Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth Bill Galvinâs office Moultonâs staff did not open… -
Anthropic Wants to Limit Government Power Over AI: What the Secret Bill Would Do© ROOT-NATION.com - Use of content is permitted with a backlink. “This bill reflects the proposals set out in our Advanced AI Framework, which we have been promoting among federal authorities and state lawmakers since June,” an Anthropic… -
Elected State Officials Receive Suspicious Lettersby Tom Gorman | Oct 16, 2026 | News U.S. Representatives Seth Moulton, Ayanna Pressley, Stephen Lynch, Lori Trahan, Jake Auchincloss and Secretary of the Commonwealth William Galvin received suspicious letters. Galvin said that his staff…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions